The European Central Bank has been slower than most to pull away the monetary rug, but it now stands ready with a key announcement on 21 July. What should we expect as it raises rates and, having stopped net purchases, sets out its stall for reinvesting member governments’ maturing bonds? Can the two levers be used in equal force, or will onus have to be on rate hikes over quantitative tightening to avoid fragmentation risk? What could possibly go wrong? How should asset allocators play it as the ECB is set aside from other central banks, having to manage a monetary union short on economic union? And, after an initial hike in July – the first for 11 years – what might we expect from the 8 September meeting and beyond?
To discuss the issues, Salman Ahmed, global head of macro & strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, speaks with Neil Williams, OMFIF chief economist.
For more on the ECB’s soon-to-be-unveiled anti-fragmentation tool, see Eight thorny questions over ECB fragmentation. https://www.omfif.org/2022/07/eight-thorny-questions-over-ecb-fragmentation/