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News And Commentary

Rebalancing China's foreign investments

China is rebalancing its foreign investments away from holdings of other countries' debt (led by US government dollar bonds) towards greater equity holdings, with a large build-up in Europe, according to a presentation by David Marsh at the Shanghai Forum, held jointly with Magyar Nemzeti Bank.

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Trump 'impeachment risk rises'

Donald Trump’s sacking of the FBI director has put impeachment back on the agenda, writes Brian Reading. Claims that Trump’s staff colluded with Russia during the 2016 elections are centre stage again, but whether the president is impeached depends on popular opinion, election arithmetic and the economy.

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Macron is an 'anti-populist populist'

'Mainstream politicians in Europe are taking over some populist arguments. Look at Mark Rutte and Emmanuel Macron, who is anti-populist populist. It is commendable that they are responding to the electorate's fears,' said Marek Belka, former prime minister of Poland, in a briefing on Europe's busy election schedule.

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Advice for Trump from Europe

Donald Trump, this week on the European leg of his first international tour, might like to take some local advice on how to rescue his presidency from the maelstrom into which it appears to be descending, writes David Marsh. Buoyed perhaps by a week away from Washington, Trump will have had time to reflect.

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'Don't be alarmed by the end of QE'

Unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing have been around for too long, writes Adam Glapiński, governor of the National Bank of Poland. They damage the financial system and stimulate moral hazard. That is why ending them may be far more beneficial than expected, even for those they have helped.

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Another May U-turn

When Theresa May, the British prime minister, called a general election, a sweeping victory seemed guaranteed. After the launch of the Conservative party manifesto that certainty disappeared, writes Meghnad Desai. With the party’s lead in the polls dropping, May was forced into a U-turn on social care costs.

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High price of reducing Greek uncertainty

After seven years of negotiations and a seven-hour Eurogroup meeting on Monday, a solution to Greece’s debt problem remains elusive, write Vicky Pryce and Danae Kyriakopoulou. But the clock is ticking. A release of further bail-out funds is essential if Greece is to avoid defaulting on around €7bn of maturing loans in July.

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Iran votes for openness

Donald Trump has signalled a rejection of Barack Obama's policies towards Iran and President Hassan Rouhani, who secured a new term on Friday. But Iran's recent economic reforms and prospects for greater openness point towards increasing levels of inward investment, writes Danae Kyriakopoulou.

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Meeting CalendarView All Forthcoming Meetings

Promoted Meeting VIEW PHOTO GALLERY

This meeting convened the renminbi liaison network (RLN) for a discussion on China's growth, global trade, renminbi internationalisation and market regulation. The RLN provides an information hub to build knowledge and improve practices in dealing with the renminbi.

GCC deficits likely to persist through to 2021

OMFIF Chart

GCC deficits likely to persist through to 2021

In 2013 oil export revenues exceeded $1.2tn for GCC economies. The IMF projects these revenues will fall to $720bn by the end of 2017. Since oil revenues make up on average more than 45% of tax revenues, the resulting budget deficits in GCC countries are unlikely to recover in the near term.

Investment Clock: Beware summer shocks for equity markets

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Beware summer shocks for equities

The Investment Clock is in the 'overheat' phase of the business cycle after the strongest surge in global growth and inflation since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock markets often move sideways over the summer and volatility tends to rise. Negative surprises could come from doubts about Trump's ability to implement planned stimulus measures.

Riksbank leaves rates unchanged despite rising inflation

OMFIF Chart

Riksbank leaves rates unchanged despite rising inflation

After a long period of deflation, Sweden's inflation rate seems to be heading towards the Riksbank's target of 2%. However, having reached 1.8% in February, the consumer price index slipped to 1.3% the following month.

Switzerland's foreign reserves rise to record levels

OMFIF Chart

Switzerland's foreign reserves rise to record levels

After falling in January, the Swiss National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have risen sharply, pointing to its increased presence in the foreign exchange market. The foreign reserves (excluding gold) reached Chf688.9bn ($693bn) in March, up from Chf674.0bn in February.

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Trump expected to avoid impeachment

Advisory Board

Trump expected to avoid impeachment

This month's OMFIF Advisers Network poll focuses on Donald Trump's future as US president after his first 100 days in office. Members of the network were asked, 'Will Donald Trump be impeached before his presidential term ends?', though a popular alternative is for a Nixon-style resignation.