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News And Commentary

Next financial crisis may eclipse 2008

It is difficult to forecast precisely when the next global economic recession will happen. It is much easier to predict its severity, writes Desmond Lachman. According to the IMF, the global debt to GDP level is 250% – around 30 percentage points higher than it was on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis.

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Trump must 'get real on trade'

If Trump's fiscal deficits are not offset by an increase in private savings relative to private investment, increases in the federal deficit will translate into larger trade deficits. Trump will then be responsible for the homegrown trade deficit. It's time for the president to get real on trade, writes Steve Hanke.

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Brazil on rough road to reform

Last month the Brazilian government presented its 'New Social Security' proposal to Congress. The government says the reforms are necessary to spark economic growth, though critics argue the new system would put excessive strain on the poor. The approval process will be far from smooth, writes Gustavo Rangel.

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May's deal will never pass parliament

Assuming opponents maintain their vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal because of the contemptuous way she has treated MPs, and assuming hardcore anti-European MPs maintain their faith, the prime minister still does not have the votes to get her deal through in the next two weeks, writes Denis Macshane.

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Future of ECB monetary measures

The future of the European Central Bank's monetary policy following extra liquidity measures and a pause in tightening announced last week was discussed at an OMFIF roundtable with New York investors and Natacha Valla, the ECB's deputy director for monetary policy.

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US must pay greater heed of Brexit

It is tempting for Washington to dismiss the UK's Brexit crisis as a problem affecting a former imperial power with little relevance to the US. That would be a grave mistake, writes Desmond Lachman. At a time of global financial market fragility, it would be in the US interest to promote a healthy UK and Europe.

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'Superstar firms' fuel price volatility

The rise of 'superstar firms' has caused a shift in structure of product markets. With advances in technology, firms' market power has risen, as has price volatility. This complicates central banks' job and muddles the transmission of inflation policy via prices, writes Pierre Ortlieb.

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OMFIF network debates inflation measures

Vicky Pryce, board member of the Centre for Economics and Business Research and part of the OMFIF advisers network, and Pierre Ortlieb, OMFIF economist, debated in today's City A.M. the virtues and vices of various measures of inflation, and how institutions can best express modern consumption habits.

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Meeting CalendarView All Forthcoming Meetings

Promoted Meeting VIEW PHOTO GALLERY

The 2018 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index launched in Bali alongside the IMF-World Bank Group meetings. In its second year, the index is a premier indicator of the attractiveness of Africa’s capital markets, for use by investors and asset managers around the world.

Why it is important to have female faculty

OMFIF Chart

Why it is important to have female faculty

The distribution of women across academic fields is uneven, and this segregation appears persistent. Economics is no exception. Despite the increase in the number of female economists over the last few decades, women in economics continue to be underrepresented.

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good news out of the US and bad news out of China.

Threat of staglation

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Threat of stagflation

Global growth and inflation figures, in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates, point to the risk of staglation over the summer months. The geopolitical backdrop, and the threat of a US-China trade war, also has a whiff of stagflation about it.

Bull market has further to run

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Bull market has further to run

The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.

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Trade war still likely to deepen, despite truce

Advisory Board

Trade war still likely to deepen, despite truce

This month’s poll focuses on the prospect of further trade antagonism between the US and China. Participants were asked: ‘Will China and US trade tensions alleviate or escalate in 2019?’