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News And Commentary

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Fraught time for Italy budget

Italy has adopted its draft budget. Reactions from the European Commission were predictably negative, anticipating a drawn out and difficult negotiation. However, the mood in Brussels seems that of avoiding confrontation as far as possible and many see room for a possible compromise, writes Antonio Armellini.

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European shock absorption limited

Euro area countries must continue to address their fiscal positions and hope the next crisis does not happen in the next three years, said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, former president of the Eurogroup, at an OMFIF roundtable in Singapore. In the light of fiscal policy disputes in the euro area, efforts to reform EMU are in jeopardy.

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US Treasury gets China largely right

Despite much huffing and puffing about China, the US Treasury’s autumn foreign exchange report is status quo. The substance is unsensational, and little changed from the last report in April. Once again, there is no ‘manipulation’ finding. The report got the main conclusions largely right, writes Mark Sobel.

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Hedging inflation with gold

Gold has fallen out of favour in financial markets, hitting a 19-month low in August. However, it is seen as a good hedge against rising inflation. While the Fed reduces its balance sheet, gold could be particularly attractive as a safe haven against equity market crashes, writes Aimee Bowkett.

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Investment Clock – A pivotal October

Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good US news and bad Chinese news, writes Trevor Greetham.

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Merkel setback hurts EMU reform chances

The result of Sunday's Bavarian state elections has badly shaken the unsteady Berlin coalition of Angela Merkel's CDU and the SPD, toughening the chancellor's already difficult task of winning consensus for strengthening the structure of European economic and monetary union, writes David Marsh.

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Global momentum abating

The global economy is slowing, and headwinds are unlikely to disappear soon. But looking across small advanced economies – helpful indicators for the health of the world economy – suggests this is more a moderation in economic momentum than a marked slowdown, writes David Skilling.

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No 'competitive devaluation' in China

When the Trump administration asserts that China steals intellectual property, violates foreign investor rights and engages in wrongful wholesale subsidisation of the economy, it stands on solid ground. Its assertions about 'competitive devaluations' by China, however, do not stand up to scrutiny, writes Mark Sobel.

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Meeting CalendarView All Forthcoming Meetings

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Japanese monetary update

Discussion with Akinari Horii, former assistant governor of the Bank of Japan

Tue 23 Oct 2018

OCTOBER | New York, US

The role of central banks in greening the financial system

OMFIF - UNCTAD Panel discussion

Fri 26 Oct 2018

OCTOBER | Geneva

Conduct of monetary policy in Canada

A roundtable discussion with Lawrence Schembri, deputy governor of the Bank of Canada

Mon 29 Oct 2018

OCTOBER | London

Future of the euro area

Future of the euro area

Thu 1 Nov 2018

NOVEMBER | Berlin

Central banks and digital currencies

A discussion with Jon Nicolaisen, Deputy Governor, Norges Bank

Mon 5 Nov 2018

NOVEMBER | London

The efficacy of macro prudential policies

A lunch discussion with Donald Kohn, Member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England and vice chairman of the Federal Reserve (2006-10).

Wed 7 Nov 2018

NOVEMBER | London

Promoted Meeting VIEW PHOTO GALLERY

The 2018 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index launched in Bali alongside the IMF-World Bank Group meetings. In its second year, the index is a premier indicator of the attractiveness of Africa’s capital markets, for use by investors and asset managers around the world.

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good news out of the US and bad news out of China.

View Chart
Threat of staglation

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Threat of stagflation

Global growth and inflation figures, in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates, point to the risk of staglation over the summer months. The geopolitical backdrop, and the threat of a US-China trade war, also has a whiff of stagflation about it.

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Bull market has further to run

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Bull market has further to run

The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.

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Global infrastructure finance falls

OMFIF Chart

Global infrastructure finance falls

Global infrastructure financing has fallen short of its potential.Private sector investment and institutional investor capital are often raised as possible solutions for filling the infrastructure funding gap.

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Advisory Board

Protecting current auditing structure

This month’s poll focuses on the UK’s top accountancy firms. Participants were asked: ‘With many people attributing at least some of the blame for the collapse of services firm Carillion to the ‘big four’ UK accounting firms, should their oligopoly on the audit market be reviewed?’

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