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News And Commentary

Euro distraction from Merkel weakness

Angela Merkel's weakness in Berlin is an unpleasant distraction as euro area countries prepare to announce measures to reinforce economic and monetary union. Squabbling in Merkel's fractious coalition could damage euro confidence and widen spreads between Italian and German bonds, writes David Marsh.

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Fed and ECB risk being caught off guard

In 2008, both the Fed and ECB were caught off guard by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that led to the worst global economic recession in the postwar period. Judging by their decisions on 14 June to tighten monetary policy, it seems both risk once again being caught out by impending crises, writes Desmond Lachman.

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Oil price spike brings risk back

Oil prices have soared by about 70% since last June, to around $77 per barrel for Brent crude, and have affected sentiment towards emerging markets negatively. Seema Shah considers this increase to be the most significant tail risk to the global economy and, as a result, to the positive outlook for risk assets in 2018.

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Fed considers doing the twist again

The long end of the US yield curve is at its flattest for more than a decade, risking distortions as rates rise. If the Fed twisted the curve, it would help ensure a balanced tightening of monetary policy. However, even mentioning such a strategy could cause a violent reaction in long-dated rates, writes John Roe.

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BoE 'prototype' stability committee

The Bank of England's financial policy committee, with a mandate that encompasses tools for guiding both borrowing and lending behaviour, could lead the way internationally in establishing the 'prototype financial stability committee', said Anil Kashyap, FPC member, in an OMFIF City Lecture in London.

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East Asia must strengthen safety net

The growing complexity of the macroeconomic landscape has amplified the danger of volatile capital flows in Asean. It is important for the bloc to deepen regional financial co-operation and bolster the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation, its multicurrency swap arrangement, writes Junhong Chang.

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Strengthening central banking governance

Implementing a suitable framework to guide central banks' governance, apply scrutiny and monitor performance is essential for maintaining these institutions' legitimacy, according to Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, in an OMFIF discussion in London on his book 'Unelected Power'.

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Struggle for Germany's monetary soul

The struggle for Germany's monetary soul is intensifying. France is trying to persuade the Germans to strengthen economic and monetary union as a means of standing up to Trump's trade bullying. Political pressures from Paris, Rome and Madrid, and Brexit, could leave Germany isolated, warns David Marsh.

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Meeting CalendarView All Forthcoming Meetings

Promoted Meeting VIEW PHOTO GALLERY

The launch of the fifth annual 'Global Public Investor,' a publication devoted to public sector asset ownership and management around the world. Speakers included Louis de Montpellier of State Street Global Advisors, Joaquim Levy of the World Bank Group and Mario Marcel of the Banco Central do Chile

Bull market has further to run

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Bull market has further to run

The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.

Global infrastructure finance falls

OMFIF Chart

Global infrastructure finance falls

Global infrastructure financing has fallen short of its potential.Private sector investment and institutional investor capital are often raised as possible solutions for filling the infrastructure funding gap.

Regulatory freedom brings prosperity

OMFIF Chart

Regulatory freedom brings prosperity

Productivity and economic growth continue to disappoint in most countries. Although analysts show a great deal of concern for the so-called 'productivity puzzle', little attention is paid to the real solution: freer markets and increased competition.

Bull markets don't die of old age

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Bull markets don't die of old age

Stock prices have been rising for more than eight years, but bull markets don't die of old age. There are few signs of the excessive growth, valuation or financial leverage that usually signal the approach of a bear market. With interest rates below inflation, it is unsurprising that money continues to flow into markets.

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Bitcoin market crash inevitable

Advisory Board

Bitcoin market crash 'inevitable'

The poll for this month focuses on the future of bitcoin. Participants were asked: ‘Will the bitcoin market crash exponentially and if so, when?’