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News And Commentary

'Power vacuum points to no-deal Brexit'

A power vacuum seems likely to arise in London over the coming weeks, writes Joergen Oerstroem Moeller. Unless Prime Minister Theresa May miraculously reimposes her will over the Conservative party and convinces parliament of the value of her EU withdrawal deal, Britain will drift towards a no-deal Brexit.

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Changing nature of bank risks

The single supervisory mechanism’s fifth anniversary is likely to coincide with substantive changes. The economy is in a new cyclical phase, and new risks are appearing. This was discussed by Ignazio Angeloni, Member of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, at a meeting organised by OMFIF.

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India must regain investor trust

Urjit Patel's resignation as governor of the Reserve Bank of India echoes that of his predecessor. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is acquiring a reputation for invading the autonomy of institutions, harming India's standing as a safe haven for foreign investors, writes Meghnad Desai.

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Brexit tumult recalls Black Wednesday

The degree of uncertainty over the future path of government policy on Brexit calls to mind the days running up to Black Wednesday in September 1992, when the UK attempted to raise base rates twice to defend the pound before crashing out of the European exchange rate mechanism, writes Trevor Greetham.

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AKK's rise – France, euro repercussions

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the new leader of Germany's CDU, faces a complex struggle to establish a grip on power, writes David Marsh. She will pursue a more conservative path in key areas compared with still-Chancellor Angela Merkel, with consequences for France and policies to stabilise the euro.

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Fed signals slowdown in rate increase

It came as a surprise when US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said in a speech that there was no 'pre-set path' for interest rate increases. But his address capped a dovish turn in the panel, rather than breaking new ground. There were clues along the way, writes Darrell Delamaide.

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Preserving Britain's place in the EEA

The UK intends to remain a member of the EEA on the same grounds as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. This approach could unite many different viewpoints in parliament because, first, the UK would maintain control, and second, it leaves longer-term trade policy issues to be settled later, writes Lord (David) Owen.

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The Bulletin: Up in the air

For the last Bulletin of 2018, contributors were invited to review the state of globalisation. They address the increased importance of the regulatory component in regional trade agreements, and how competition from local firms may be a greater threat to multinationals than trade wars between superpowers.

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Meeting CalendarView All Forthcoming Meetings

Promoted Meeting VIEW PHOTO GALLERY

The 2018 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index launched in Bali alongside the IMF-World Bank Group meetings. In its second year, the index is a premier indicator of the attractiveness of Africa’s capital markets, for use by investors and asset managers around the world.

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock – A pivotal October

Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good news out of the US and bad news out of China.

Threat of staglation

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Threat of stagflation

Global growth and inflation figures, in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates, point to the risk of staglation over the summer months. The geopolitical backdrop, and the threat of a US-China trade war, also has a whiff of stagflation about it.

Bull market has further to run

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Bull market has further to run

The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.

Global infrastructure finance falls

OMFIF Chart

Global infrastructure finance falls

Global infrastructure financing has fallen short of its potential.Private sector investment and institutional investor capital are often raised as possible solutions for filling the infrastructure funding gap.

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Advisory Board

Protecting current auditing structure

This month’s poll focuses on the UK’s top accountancy firms. Participants were asked: ‘With many people attributing at least some of the blame for the collapse of services firm Carillion to the ‘big four’ UK accounting firms, should their oligopoly on the audit market be reviewed?’