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Central banks have become more visible and more vulnerable. The 100th edition recognises the bittersweet realities of modern central banking. No fewer than eight serving and former central bank governors and deputy governors have contributed to this edition of the magazine, representing both major advanced economies and emerging powers in all corners of the world.
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Donald Trump has redefined the aims of US foreign policy, writes Meghnad Desai. We are back to pre-1914 'Fortress America'. The US entered the first world war only because of the sinking of the RMS Lusitania. It entered the second only after Pearl Harbor. Trump no longer wishes to run the world.
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Listen to the OMFIF podcast for the latest news and insight on financial markets, monetary policy and global investment themes. Published weekly, the podcast features input from a range of academic experts, policy-makers and investment professional on topics including ESG, globalisation, political risk, fintech and green finance.
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The blockchain technology behind well-known crypto-assets contains enormous potential for efficiency-enhancing and cost-saving applications for digitally recording subscriptions, safe custody and trading activities. Less benignly, there are widespread fears that an untrammelled move into an uncharted investment territory could, in the event of malfeasance or malfunction, critically undermine confidence and restrict future innovation.
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The OMFIF Bulletin monthly review provides readers with a recap of the meetings that took place over the past month and provides a sample of the forthcoming meetings in the next six months. The December Bulletin review covers meetings in Singapore, London and New York. To learn more about OMFIF Meetings and Membership, please email enquiries@omfif.org
Read moreLast year's thrashing in all emerging market investment classes, with debt, equity and currencies in simultaneous decline for the first time in a decade, cast equal blame on internal and external forces and prompted reconsideration of allocation rationale into the next decade, writes Gary Kleiman.
Although China's slowing growth and surging debt figures may appear alarming, onlookers should not be overly worried, writes James Carrick. Since 2005, China's share of the world economy has more than tripled to 16% from 5%. This larger share means 6% growth today is equivalent to 15% growth a decade ago.
There is plenty of room for unpleasant economic surprises in 2019. Still, it is important to keep the risks in proper perspective against a global economy that is slowing, but still very strong, and political tensions that are distracting, but unlikely to trigger recession, writes Christopher Smart.
The UK is likely to enact a relative 'soft' European Union exit, slightly delayed beyond 29 March, OMFIF Chairman David Marsh told German TV. The UK is not prepared for a 'no-deal' Brexit, and British Prime Minister Theresa May's attempt to bluff other Europeans on this point too is unlikely to succeed.
The EU cannot offer a special deal that allows Switzerland access to the single market but without respecting its rules, as this would set a precedent for the UK, writes Denis MacShane. Equally, the Swiss government and its MPs find it hard to agree a deal with Brussels that risks being repudiated in a referendum.
In among concerns about economic growth rolling over, one must recognise that central banks are still heading to the exit, writes David Owen. In December the Riksbank raised rates for the first time in this cycle, while the end of QE brings with it the risk of a snap-back in capital flows globally.
In Italy, fiscal money could fund public investments and social spending, supplement employees' income and reduce businesses' tax-wedge on labour. These allocations would increase and sustain a higher level of domestic demand and improve business competitiveness, helping close Italy's output gap.
Theresa May, facing a crucial vote on 15 January on Brexit, is running down the clock until MPs feel they have no option but to back her deal over departure on 29 March. But the government will not be able to get the deal through parliament and so will have to go back to Brussels, writes Norman Lamont.
A City Lecture with Vítor Constâncio, vice-president of the European Central Bank
Wed 23 Jan 2019
JANUARY | London
A discussion with Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
Thu 24 Jan 2019
JANUARY | New York
Roundtable with Nathalie Aufauvre, Director General for Financial Stability and Operations, Banque de France
Thu 24 Jan 2019
JANUARY | New York
A high-level panel discussion on global economic challenges for 2019.
Fri 25 Jan 2019
JANUARY | Singapore
European launch of the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2018
Fri 25 Jan 2019
JANUARY | Davos
A discussion with Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs, Princeton University
Fri 25 Jan 2019
JANUARY | 08:00
The 2018 Absa Africa Financial Markets Index launched in Bali alongside the IMF-World Bank Group meetings. In its second year, the index is a premier indicator of the attractiveness of Africa’s capital markets, for use by investors and asset managers around the world.
Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good news out of the US and bad news out of China.
Global growth and inflation figures, in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates, point to the risk of staglation over the summer months. The geopolitical backdrop, and the threat of a US-China trade war, also has a whiff of stagflation about it.
The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.
Global infrastructure financing has fallen short of its potential.Private sector investment and institutional investor capital are often raised as possible solutions for filling the infrastructure funding gap.
This month’s poll focuses on the prospect of further trade antagonism between the US and China. Participants were asked: ‘Will China and US trade tensions alleviate or escalate in 2019?’
