Assessing the economic impact of coronavirus
As uncertainty continues over the economic impact of coronavirus on the global economy, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research examines the potential ramifications, using stylised scenarios based on the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model. Two architects of NIESR’s most recent report join OMFIF in presenting their findings. They specifically focus on the different channels of impact including through the labour market, consumers’ expenditure and investment, higher uncertainty and a temporary shutdown in some sectors. Not accounting for substantial policy responses, the underlying impact on global GDP growth is likely to be at least as large in magnitude as the 2008 financial crisis.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum have agreed to work together strategically in areas of common interest. NIESR is Britain’s longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938, carrying out research into the economic and social forces affecting people’s lives and improving understanding of how policy can bring about change. OMFIF is an independent think tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment, with teams in London, Singapore and the US.
NIESR’s long-standing expertise in modelling the macroeconomy and understanding monetary-financial-fiscal policies provides a natural link to OMFIF’s focus on global policy and investment themes relating to official monetary institutions. NIESR and OMFIF already co-operated in the US with a joint seminar in July 2019 with the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and other organisations on longer-term economic scenarios including long-term investments and sustainable economics. Further areas for work include the influence of populism on economic thinking, the future shape of central banking and investment trends in ‘green economics’.