The Bulletin: Q1 2024
ELECTIONOMICS!
What to expect from this year's global election cycle
Geopolitics, fiscal policy and institutional resilience will be key considerations in elections this year, writes Taylor Pearce, senior economist, OMFIF’s Economic and Monetary Policy Institute.
Global view
Expect even more volatility in a super-election year
Elections could see major turning points in mature markets, not just newly democratic states, argues Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research, State Street Global Advisors.
International economic leadership is vital for US national security
The US needs to invest more in this area, writes Mark Sobel, US chair of OMFIF.
Advanced economies
US election will test economic, political and institutional resilience
As a chaotic election campaign kicks off, the investment case for the US ultimately depends on the strength of its institutions, explains Christopher Smart, managing partner, Arbroath Group.
Global issues as much as domestic will decide UK election
Decarbonisation, immigration and fiscal policy will be high on the campaign agenda, writes Andrew Pilgrim, UK financial services partner at EY.
UK must review the organisation of monetary and fiscal policy
The 2024 general election provides an opportunity for vast improvement, explains Peter Sedgwick, former senior UK Treasury official.
Europe needs comprehensive industrial policy to withstand populist forces
European Parliament elections will be determined by inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and the growing influence of extremes, explains Geoffrey Yu, senior strategist at BNY Mellon.
Emerging markets
Can the next government build on India’s economic potential?
Modi looks set to return amid continued strong infrastructure spending but modest fiscal consolidation, writes Jeremy Zook, director, Asia sovereign ratings, Fitch Ratings.
Mexico: no longer a tale of two elections
Politics no longer drives Mexican financial markets, but reforms are required to become a nearshoring nirvana, writes Nikhil Sanghani, managing director, Economic and Monetary Policy Institute, OMFIF.
South Africa faces prospect of multi-party coalition
A coalition could bring more stability, or it could make addressing challenges harder, writes Jeff Gable, head of macro and fixed income research, Absa.
Indonesia election uncertainty clouds fiscal outlook
A two-round election is the most likely scenario, write Johanna Chua, head of emerging market economics at Citi Global Markets Asia and Helmi Arman, Indonesia chief economist at Citi Global Markets.
China unusually candid about economic challenges
Xi acknowledges difficulties in road to recovery. By Herbert Poenisch
Argentina and Türkiye: a tale of two adjustments
Milei and Erdoğan take contrasting approaches to economic problems. By David Lubin
Global Public Investor seminar
26 March 2024
Senior representatives from central banks, public pension funds, sovereign funds, asset managers and policy-makers discuss macroeconomic developments and trends in public sector investment management.
Competitiveness of European financial services
Europe’s banks and asset managers, with support from politicians and regulators, must seize an opportunity to close the ‘competitiveness gap’ with their peers in the US and the rest of the world, a report by Luxembourg for Finance and OMFIF urges.
Through conversations with three of the main state actors in Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the ministry of finance and ÁKK, this report examines the potential for doing business in and with Hungary and the wider region.
This report explores how public pension and sovereign funds are building investment strategies to address the uncertain economic environment and factor sustainability into their portfolios.