The Bulletin: Q1 2024


What to expect from this year's global election cycle

Geopolitics, fiscal policy and institutional resilience will be key considerations in elections this year, writes Taylor Pearce, senior economist, OMFIF’s Economic and Monetary Policy Institute.

Global view

Expect even more volatility in a super-election year

Elections could see major turning points in mature markets, not just newly democratic states, argues Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research, State Street Global Advisors.

International economic leadership is vital for US national security

The US needs to invest more in this area, writes Mark Sobel, US chair of OMFIF.

Advanced economies

US election will test economic, political and institutional resilience

As a chaotic election campaign kicks off, the investment case for the US ultimately depends on the strength of its institutions, explains Christopher Smart, managing partner, Arbroath Group.

Global issues as much as domestic will decide UK election

Decarbonisation, immigration and fiscal policy will be high on the campaign agenda, writes Andrew Pilgrim, UK financial services partner at EY.

UK must review the organisation of monetary and fiscal policy

The 2024 general election provides an opportunity for vast improvement, explains Peter Sedgwick, former senior UK Treasury official.

Europe needs comprehensive industrial policy to withstand populist forces

European Parliament elections will be determined by inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and the growing influence of extremes, explains Geoffrey Yu, senior strategist at BNY Mellon.

Emerging markets

Can the next government build on India’s economic potential?

Modi looks set to return amid continued strong infrastructure spending but modest fiscal consolidation, writes Jeremy Zook, director, Asia sovereign ratings, Fitch Ratings.

Mexico: no longer a tale of two elections

Politics no longer drives Mexican financial markets, but reforms are required to become a nearshoring nirvana, writes Nikhil Sanghani, managing director, Economic and Monetary Policy Institute, OMFIF.

South Africa faces prospect of multi-party coalition

A coalition could bring more stability, or it could make addressing challenges harder, writes Jeff Gable, head of macro and fixed income research, Absa.

Indonesia election uncertainty clouds fiscal outlook

A two-round election is the most likely scenario, write Johanna Chua, head of emerging market economics at Citi Global Markets Asia and Helmi Arman, Indonesia chief economist at Citi Global Markets.

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China unusually candid about economic challenges
Xi acknowledges difficulties in road to recovery. By Herbert Poenisch

Argentina and Türkiye: a tale of two adjustments
Milei and Erdoğan take contrasting approaches to economic problems. By David Lubin

Global Public Investor seminar
26 March 2024

Senior representatives from central banks, public pension funds, sovereign funds, asset managers and policy-makers discuss macroeconomic developments and trends in public sector investment management.

Competitiveness of European financial services

Europe’s banks and asset managers, with support from politicians and regulators, must seize an opportunity to close the ‘competitiveness gap’ with their peers in the US and the rest of the world, a report by Luxembourg for Finance and OMFIF urges.

Through conversations with three of the main state actors in Hungary, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the ministry of finance and ÁKK, this report examines the potential for doing business in and with Hungary and the wider region.

Global Public Pensions 2023

This report explores how public pension and sovereign funds are building investment strategies to address the uncertain economic environment and factor sustainability into their portfolios.

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