Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to drag on for at least several months, and possibly much longer, because a peace deal will be blocked by Ukraine’s refusal to accept President Vladimir Putin’s demand for a Russia-compliant government in Kyiv.
That is the ‘grim prospect’ in store according to Philip Short, author of the most detailed biography of Putin to date, speaking at an OMFIF roundtable in London. Short has generally been accurate in his assessment of war developments thus far. He spelled out a scenario in which Moscow proposes Ukrainian neutrality and forfeiture of territory lost to Russia during the military engagements of the past 11 years, accelerated by the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Europe is unable to fill the gap left by the US
With Putin’s hand apparently strengthened by US support for a speedy peace agreement, the two conditions of no Nato membership and territorial losses are likely to be reluctantly agreed by the Ukrainians. But a third Russian condition – a call for a friendly, or at least non-hostile government in Kyiv – will not be acceptable to the Ukrainian people in any forthcoming election or transfer of power, Short said.
This will lead to a period of attrition, he predicted. The most likely outcome is that Russia and Ukraine will fight on for at least six months, in spite of sporadic efforts to end the conflict brokered by the US with or without European involvement. Russia is likely to make increasing use of its superior military strength and will profit from Ukraine’s progressive debilitation through lack of US arms and intelligence support and only a slow build-up of rearmament capabilities from Europe. Short reminded listeners that the longer a war goes on, and especially if it becomes a war of attrition, the more the numbers count.
In spite of the show of Ukraine solidarity from the European Union, the UK and Canada in recent days, as well as the EU and German debt-fuelled shift to greater military spending, Short argued that Europe will lack the capacity to make up for US military aid if Trump decides to pull out for good. It is also uncertain that the ‘coalition of the willing’ proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will in the end be able to muster the political will to make the hard choices involved. He believes that the Russian economy, although hit by previous US-led sanctions, has moved sufficiently on to a war footing to make it resilient at least for the next 18 months.
What does Putin want?
Short believes the key reason for the full-scale invasion in 2022, apart from Putin’s ‘obsession’ with Ukraine as a seminal part of Russia’s culture and history, was his desire to cement his political legacy as a strong leader as he passed the milestone of his 70th birthday.
In Short’s view, this raises the question of Putin’s succession. Unlike many other Russia analysts, who argue that Putin will be so nervous of giving up power that he will die in office, he believes that Putin does want to organise an orderly succession – similar to his own succession to Boris Yeltsin in 1999 – and that he will regard it as a failure if he is unable to do so.
However, Short said, whether he can achieve that is a different matter. It will depend on the war in Ukraine ending in what Russia will regard as an acceptable fashion, on the internal situation in Russia when that happens, and his confidence, or otherwise, in whomever he anoints as his heir. Even if he does step down, he will have to choose whether to withdraw completely, as Yeltsin did, and risk seeing some of his policies changed, or whether he will retain an oversight position, possibly as chairman of the Russian State Council, a post currently vacant, which appears to have been created with that possibility in mind.
Relationship with China
Quizzed about whether Trump in his recent Putin-supporting line is trying to woo Russia away from partnership with China, Short voiced strong doubt about whether that would happen. In his view, this reflects Putin’s fierce distrust of the US and Trump as well as his desire to remain on friendly terms with China, which is seen in Moscow as a more stable partner.
Barring something totally unexpected in Washington, Trump will step down in 2029 and no one can predict who will follow him. Xi Jinping is likely to be there for much longer. China values the relationship with Russia both for economic reasons and because it ensures that the 4,000km long border between the two countries remains secure. Putin and Xi have a shared desire to erode American dominance. It is hard to see what leverage Trump could use that would significantly weaken that shared ambition.
David Marsh is Chairman of OMFIF.
Join OMFIF in Washington DC on 24 April to examine the evolution of US financial sanctions.
Interested in this topic? Subscribe to OMFIF’s newsletter for more.
