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Trump 2.0: what shocks await the global economy?
As the world braces for more protectionism and hard-hitting tariffs, the picture is not all bad for financial markets, writes Arunima Sharan, senior economist, Economic and Monetary Policy Institute, OMFIF
Economic expectations
Global economy will underwhelm amid huge uncertainty
Trump’s trade policies could deal a shock to an already lacklustre outlook, warns Mark Sobel, US chair of OMFIF.
Trump 2.0: it’s all about timing
The timing and sequence of Trump’s policies will have a big impact on the US economy, writes Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research, State Street Global Advisors.
Global growth is dependent on a resilient US
The US economy is moving backwards through the cycle, conveniently avoiding a recession, explains Jared Franz, economist at Capital Group.
Geopolitical shifts
Milei’s tango with Trump
Argentina is gambling on a US-backed IMF lifeline, writes Hector Torres, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
Five implications of ‘America first’ for the global South
Trump’s second term will be a moment of reckoning for Brics countries and emerging markets, writes Udaibir Das, visiting professor at the National Council of Applied Economic Research.
Trump 2.0 and implications for China
Beijing is prepared to hit back at the US, writes Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Investment strategies
What should emerging market debt investors expect from Trump’s second term?
The asset class provides a compelling case for diversification, explain Nicholas Hardingham, portfolio manager, and Stephanie Ouwendijk, portfolio manager and research analyst, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income.
Rebalancing growth and investments under Trump 2.0
A second Trump term brings high uncertainty, but it is also an opportunity for an economic rethink, writes Geoffrey Yu, senior EMEA markets strategist at BNY.
Are markets right to be optimistic about Trump?
Global investors welcomed the re-election of Trump, but are they underestimating the disruptive impact of his second term? By Massimiliano Castelli, head of strategy, sovereign institutions, and Philipp Salman, director of strategy and advice, global sovereign markets, UBS Asset Management.
Expectations for the future of US-China economic relations
This roundtable will discuss US-China relations under Donald Trump’s new administration as well as policy responses, currency trends and the macroeconomic impact of tariffs for both economies.
Joachim Nagel on the natural rate of interest
Wed 12 Feb 202517:00Â -Â 18:30
OMFIF Live broadcast
Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, delivers a lecture with OMFIF and the London School of Economics on the natural rate of interest, its measurement, how it evolved over time, the uncertainty around its current level, and the implications for policy-making in the coming years.
From petrodollar to petroyuan?
Mark Sobel, US chair, OMFIF, speaks with Max Castelli, head of strategy, sovereign institutions, UBS Asset Management, on the role of the dollar and the various dedollarisation scenarios. They discuss Saudi Arabia’s decision to join Project mBridge and the potential implications for the incumbent dollar-based financial system.