[Skip to Content]

Register to receive the weekly OMFIF Commentary, on the stories behind global economic and financial news.

* Required Fields

Member Area Login

Forgotten Password?

Forgotten password

Analysis

The Bulletin

 

OMFIF’s monthly publication, The Bulletin, features in-depth news and commentary on key developments in the financial industry and global capital markets.

November cover

November 2017 edition

In the 12 months since the US presidential vote, the feeling of popular dissatisfaction with the status quo that brought Donald Trump to the White House has manifested itself in other elections around the world. This month’s Bulletin reflects on the forces that continue to disrupt economics and politics and the risks of them contributing to a rise in economic nationalism.

Robert Koopman of the World Trade Organisation draws attention to how artificial intelligence and robotics are disrupting the labour market and impacting the relative demand for skilled v. unskilled workers, while Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva focuses on the importance of globally coordinated compensation schemes to narrow this divide. Claudio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements argues that the role of globalisation and technology in influencing wage-setting weakens central banks’ control over inflation.

Weak inflation was a key factor in the European Central Bank’s decision on 26 October to extend its quantitative easing programme. Danae Kyriakopoulou suggests that the Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy may provide useful lessons as the ECB runs against constraints to achieving its mandate. Kenneth Sullivan and Robin Darbyshire discuss the need for central banks to properly account for their gold and related transactions to strengthen accountability to stakeholders.

Two other major central banks were due to meet as this Bulletin went to press. The US Federal Reserve is not expected to move policy this month, though a rate increase is widely expected for December, writes Darrell Delamaide. The Bank of England meets in early November and is widely expected to raise interest rates. The economic outlook remains clouded by the UK-European Union exit negotiations after yet another inconclusive summit in Brussels at the end of October. More than two-thirds of respondents in this month’s OMFIF Advisers Network poll expressed confidence that a transitional period of some sort will be agreed.

Other highlights of the November 2017 edition:

Meghnad Desai promotes fiscal policy as the crucial tool to revive India’s growth.

Steve Hanke draws lessons from Georgia’s efforts in improving the regulatory environment to boost productivity.

Adam Cotter highlights that renminbi internationalisation stands at an inflection point, concluding that the long-term trend will be one of greater adoption on global markets.

Elliot Hentov suggests that internationalisation of the Chinese currency is a matter of political will.

• One of the factors holding back emerging market development is underinvestment in infrastructure, in turn challenged by a lack of properly structured investment projects, reports Otaviano Canuto.

• While a substantial infrastructure push is needed, the challenge will be to do this in a way that accounts for its potentially harmful impact on the environment, warns Kat Usita.

• Trump’s ambition for the US to be ‘energy dominant’ can be realised through renewables rather than by providing undue support to the coal industry, argues Oliver Thew.

• Attracting private capital is crucial to combat carbon emissions, writes Caroline Butler.

• Public-private solutions are the way forward for mobilising finance to cope with the global refugee crisis, notes Gary Kleiman in his proposal for dedicated ‘refugee bonds’.

• Policy-makers need to use forecasting tools to plan for sudden surges in the demand for cash, such as in the event of natural disasters, argues Doug Brooks of De La Rue.

Mario Blejer and Juan Cancelli present evidence for the impact of modernisation of banking procedures on Argentina’s housing market.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

October Bulletin Cover (2)

October 2017 edition

Advances in complex technologies are transforming the way people interact with and use consumer financial services. This month’s Bulletin highlights how innovation in financial technology will support the burgeoning ‘digital economy’, and how banks, businesses and regulators should react to unfamiliar and disruptive challenges.

Greg Medcraft of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission explains why the increased use of technology cannot be used as an excuse for shifting risk on to consumers. One authority at the forefront of digital developments is the Bank of Japan. Hiromi Yamaoka describes how the BoJ and the European Central Bank are collaborating on improving their payments and settlements systems through innovations in distributed ledger technology. Jeff Bandman sets out 10 core principles for promoting engagement between fintech companies and regulatory authorities.
Pēteris Zilgalvis of the European Commission outlines the development of the European ‘digital single market’, and the emphasis on free flow of data across borders. Mojmír Hampl, vice-governor of the Czech National Bank, argues that alternative currencies are still negligible in size and scope and do not constitute any threat to the monetary system.

Former Bangladesh Bank Governor Atiur Rahman writes that developing countries can serve as suitable incubators for testing advances in fintech, and why this is strengthening financial inclusion among the unbanked population in developing countries. Matthew Saal, head of digital finance in the financial institutions group of the International Finance Corporation, describes how innovators in emerging markets are exploiting a gap left by the formal banking sector. One such market is Kenya, where pioneering mobile technology is making the country a leader in the field, as Oliver Thew details.

On 13 October OMFIF is launching its Africa Financial Markets Index, which measures countries’ openness to foreign investment. Ben Robinson and Bhavin Patel explain the economic background of the index’s findings, and Seedwell Hove reports on sub-Saharan Africa’s economic performance. In Latin America, Otaviano Canuto describes how the Brazilian judiciary’s corruption investigation will bring major long-term benefits.

David Nowakowski of Barings explains how intervening in currency markets has become part of emerging market central banks’ policy arsenals. On Europe, Ben Robinson and Danae Kyriakopoulou spell out the future of the ECB’s quantitative easing. Germany is at the centre of this debate. The 24 September elections raise new challenges for Chancellor Angela Merkel, not least regarding deeper European integration, as David Marsh describes. Spain has been one of Europe‘s brighter spots. Madrid features in this edition’s Focus report on financial centres.

In the US, Darrell Delamaide explores the puzzle over low inflation and dwells on the future of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. She is likely to be replaced in February 2018 by Gary Cohn, Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser, according to this month’s Advisers Network poll. Elliot Hentov of State Street Global Advisors describes how official institutional investors are increasingly adopting environmental, social and governance strategies. Christian Déséglise of HSBC urges standardisation of global rules to help channel capital towards climate-friendly initiatives.

In the first of two book reviews, Alan Budd recalls Britain’s inglorious exit from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992 in his appraisal of Six Days in September – Black Wednesday, Brexit and the making of Europe from OMFIF Press. Julian Frazer critiques Rutger Bregman’s Utopia for Realists, which presents an impassioned, if not always elegant, argument for universal basic income.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

Bulletin cover

September 2017 edition

The defining characteristic of the past two years has been the rise in anti-globalisation sentiment, expressed through the UK’s vote to exit the European Union, the support for Donald Trump’s unilateralist agenda, and the introduction of protectionist trade measures at the fastest pace since the 2008 financial crisis. This month’s Bulletin focuses on global flows – of capital, goods and people – looking at how they have developed in the post-crisis environment and analysing the political and economic challenges.

Arnór Sighvatsson, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Iceland, discusses Iceland’s experience with capital flows management and presents the benefits of the special reserve requirement as a means for achieving a beneficial composition of flows. Danae Kyriakopoulou reflects on the changed nature of financial globalisation in the post-crisis period, with a greater role for foreign direct investment compared with cross-border lending. The 2008 crisis exposed the difficulty of modelling global financial markets, writes George Hoguet in his review of Richard Bookstaber’s The End of Theory. Ben Robinson discusses the factors affecting the changed relationship between trade and GDP, forecasting a prolonged period of disappointing trade growth.

However, it is easy to overstate the negative scenarios for globalisation, warns Gabriel Stein in his review of Stephen King’s Grave New World. In the EU, Brexit and the future of trade dominate the debate. Plutarchos Sakellaris discusses the origins of modern anti-establishment attitudes in Europe, while Szilárd Benk and Péter Gábriel of Magyar Nemzeti Bank examine the impact of intra-EU migration.

On emerging markets, Atish Ghosh, Jonathan Ostry and Mahvash Qureshi present insights from an International Monetary Fund study on proactive macroeconomic management to avoid crises in the face of capital flows volatility. Such volatility and the mismanagement of flows played an important role in the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Many of these problems continue to trouble Asia. Gao Haihong examines the challenges for China’s capital controls and exchange rate policies as it seeks to internationalise the renminbi. Bhavin Patel writes about improving financial infrastructure to facilitate the renminbi’s use in cross-border payments, and Kat Usita discusses Chinese investment in Africa.

2017 marks the 10th anniversary of the European Investment Bank’s first green bond issue. However, caution is needed to avoid greenwashing, warns Steve Hanke, who presents a new methodology to measure the sustainability and greenness of production processes. September 2017 commemorates, too, 25 years since ‘Black Wednesday’, the day Britain exited Europe’s exchange rate mechanism. David Marsh presents the lessons from the episode spelled out in the OMFIF Press book Six Days in September: Black Wednesday, Brexit and the making of Europe. Central bankers today have different sets of problems. Darrell Delamaide summarises the discussions at this year’s Jackson Hole meeting, while Gary Smith discusses the implications for monetary policy of the changed relationship between inflation and unemployment. Hervé Le Bihan and Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau, of the Banque de France, present insights from unconventional methods of measuring inflation expectations, concluding that the risk of a long period of ‘lowflation’ remains.

Early discussions have started about who will be at the helm of the European Central Bank once President Mario Draghi’s term ends in 2019. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, is the most likely successor, according to this month’s OMFIF Advisers Network poll. This could entrench Germany’s soft power in Europe. In his review of Paul Lever’s Berlin Rules, Robert Bischof discusses the rise of Europe’s ‘reluctant hegemon’ on the world stage.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

Julyaug Bulletin Cover

 

July-August 2017 edition

At 33.9 degrees Celsius, 21 June was the hottest day in the UK since 1976, in a year that so far has been the hottest ever recorded on earth.
Earlier in June Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement. Governments and the public have long debated the
importance of climate change, but public and private investors too are getting the chance to invest more sustainably as the green finance
market grows.

Bertrand de Mazières of the European Investment Bank (the first institution to issue a green bond) and Antony Karembu of the African
Development Bank set the scene in this month’s green finance-focused edition by exploring what it means to be green and tracking the
development of the market. Robert Scharfe outlines the importance of building standards. Despite the lack of a fully developed market, our
list of green-related deals of 2016-17 shows impressive expansion. This growth will not be curtailed by the US withdrawal from the Paris
agreement, according to 68% of respondents to this month’s Advisers Network poll. One important area of expansion is Africa, where green
bonds have the potential to transform the economy, writes Jeremy Wakeford.

Evelyn Hartwick of the International Finance Corporation draws attention to the challenges facing official institutions in supporting the development of the green market. Ulrich Volz highlights the importance of climate change to central banks in the light of potential risks to financial stability. Alexander Barkawi similarly argues why monetary policy should go green. Danae Kyriakopoulou applauds Dieter Helm’s attempt to deploy economic principles in the area of conservation in her review of Natural Capital.

In our second book review Vicky Pryce takes a balanced view of Greece’s former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ fascinating but one-sided
account of euro area negotiations in Adults in the Room. Theresa May seems to have learnt a lesson or two from Varoufakis’ bad experiences
and is softening her stance following the start of her own negotiations with the EU in June. But her offer to guarantee EU citizens’ rights lacks
substance, according to Danae Kyriakopoulou. One year on from the referendum, the UK looks weak compared with a revived EU. Jean-Jacques
Barbéris outlines French President Macron’s plans to boost the economy through technology and innovation.

Franco-German co-operation is getting stronger and was even fortified by the death of former German Chancellor Kohl, writes David Marsh.
In his obituary, Marsh remembers Kohl as chancellor with a down-to-earth economic approach. The European Central Bank will be an important
part of the future of Franco-German accord. Marsh argues that Germany’s Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank chief, should aim to become the euro
area’s first finance minister and leave the role of heading the central bank to France’s François Villeroy de Galhau when Mario Draghi’s term
ends in 2019. Ben Robinson discusses the difficult choices the ECB faces on the future of quantitative easing.

In the US, the succession race for Janet Yellen’s post has begun. Darrell Delamaide assesses the rumours of who might replace her, if at all.
Whoever is in charge, the world’s major central banks will face a difficult task deflating their balance sheets according to the latest edition of our collaboration with Narodowy Bank Polski by Pawel Kowalewski and Ben Robinson.

Central banks elsewhere are scaling back from monetary expansion. Donald Mbaka outlines the priorities for the Central Bank of Nigeria.
In a conversation with OMFIF’s Ben Robinson, Banco Central do Brasil’s Deputy Governor Tiago Berriel highlights the challenges but also
opportunities from Brazil’s changed economic and political environment.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

June Cover 


June 2017 edition

China’s economy has been accelerating – defying expectations that had been damped by worries of a ‘hard landing’ and geopolitical uncertainty. Expansionary government policy has helped the better growth picture. The economy is taking in its stride higher US interest rates, confirmed by the Federal Reserve tightening on 14 June.

Less evidently, China has been redeploying foreign investments to seek higher yields by focusing on equities, report David Marsh and Bhavin Patel. China’s delicate equilibrium constrains the authorities to proceed cautiously with its reform, liberalisation and openness agenda – with results that will affect the bond and equity markets, writes Nan Bai of ChinaAMC.

Qi Bin and Chao Chen of China Investment Corporation comment on how China is boosting its technical know-how through foreign acquisitions, with the country benefiting from institutions’ low liquidity requirements and a long-term investment horizon. Regulatory coordination to curb shadow banking activities will be key, according to Le Xia of BBVA. John Adams reflects on the proposals for investing in soft infrastructure and strengthening institutions in his review of the International Monetary Fund’s book, Modernizing China.

Central banks in Asia are preparing for capital outflows and exchange rate pressures by increasing their reserves. This month’s edition of our regular analysis of central bank balance sheets in collaboration with Narodowy Bank Polski documents monetary developments in China, India, South Korea and Thailand. In particular they have been preparing for Fed rate hikes, even though labour market data have been giving a mixed picture, as Darrell Delamaide reports. Unconventional monetary measures have produced complex results that sometimes countermand central banks’ mandates. Sayuri Shirai’s book, Mission Incomplete, reviewed by John Plender, outlines Japanese experience. Ben Robinson explores the increasing attention being paid to green finance by Global Public Investors, including central banks, sovereign funds and public pension funds, as they shift away from traditional assets to more risky ones. Robinson also writes on how sterling’s sharp fall last year benefited Britain’s net foreign investment position. Ruth Euling of De La Rue voices caution about the assumed growth of a cashless societies.

Lord (Meghnad) Desai outlines the reasons why Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour party leader, performed better than expected in the 8 June UK general election. Adam Glapiński, president of Narodowy Bank Polski, draws attention to the scepticism of smaller non-euro EU members towards deeper integration. Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce sets out the possible scenarios arising from France’s legislative elections for Present Emmanuel Macron to preside over genuine reform. The Advisers Network was asked about how Macron and his nascent party was likely to perform in these elections. He received a favourable score, with 46% of respondents expecting him to form a political majority. 

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

May Bulletin Cover

May 2017 edition

Oil prices are recovering this year from the 13-year lows seen in early 2016. But the upturn is unlikely to reassure producers because the fundamentals of demand, supply and exchange-rate dynamics point to price weakness continuing for some time. In January, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to adjust production with the aim of stabilising prices. The oil market remains in the twilight zone – but this can be a powerful catalyst for reform among Opec states.

Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto identify the threats to the agreement from non-compliance and rising shale oil output. The agreement may provide a short-term solution for exporters but to achieve sustainable development they need to adjust their growth models, argues Bhavin Patel. Other commodities are faring better than oil. Gautam Sashittal advocates the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty.

Cedric Mbeng Mezui examines the links between commodity revenues and fiscal policy in Africa, warning against procyclical tendencies that expose external vulnerabilities. John Anyanwu advocates the need for greater state intervention to help lift Africa out of extreme poverty. The scandal associated with oil giant Petrobras risks delaying reform progress in Brazil, writes David Smith.

On Asia, Amando Tetangco, governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, explores the reforms needed for the region to avoid the middle-income trap. One possibility is promoting financial infrastructure, where Asia still lags. As Adam Cotter writes, the latest International Monetary Fund reserve asset data show China punching significantly below its economic weight when it comes to the importance of the renminbi. Ikuko Samikawa argues that the Bank of Japan’s adoption of yield curve control may lead to prices at last shifting to a rising trend.

The Federal Reserve appears to be adopting a more activist stance. Darrell Delamaide reflects on Fed officials’ intentions regarding its balance sheet. As documented in the latest book from OMFIF Press, Trump: The First One Hundred Days, the US president may have changed his mind on monetary policy and the Fed. Yet risks for his presidency remain. The Advisers Network was polled on the probability of impeachment. While 69% do not expect Donald Trump to be impeached, some suggested that he might resign.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please
contact membership@omfif.org

April Bulletin Cover 3 (1)

April 2017 edition

Europe’s leaders gathered on 25 March to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome. It would be easy to dismiss the occasion as lacking any cause for cheer. There are plenty of shadows over Europe: the terrorist attack in London on 22 March, uncertainties over the French and German elections, renewed concerns about the Greek and Italian economies, and worries over the UK’s exit from the European Union. This month’s Bulletin attempts to summarise the risks and challenges for Europe as it moves on from commemorating the past towards examining priorities for the future and attempting to renew structures and objectives.

Roel Janssen argues that populism’s loss of momentum in the Dutch elections will influence other European polls. The most immediate one is the presidential election in France. Jean-Jacques Barbéris and Brigitte Granville reflect on the concerns of voters and the candidates’ economic policies. Victory for Marine Le Pen, leader of the anti-euro, anti-immigrant National Front (FN), is deemed doubtful. Yet her standing in the opinion polls and the FN’s electoral success so far put pressure on elites to adapt to a new political environment.

Regulation, reforms and monetary policy remain key tenets as the European Community, now the EU, enters its seventh decade. Felix Hufeld highlights the need for balance between rules and principles in financial regulation. Hans Blommestein draws attention to the negative side-effects of easing policies on bond market liquidity, while Gary Smith presents the challenges for central banks in the context of future demographic shifts. Lorenzo Codogno focuses on the issue of minority shareholder protection and its importance in Italy’s efforts to attract foreign investment.

The shock waves emanating from Britain’s decision will mingle with further perturbations stemming from expected political acrimony in the exit negotiations and a wider economic reordering as nations within and beyond the EU adjust to the consequences for trade, business and finance. The European Commission’s surprisingly (and, for some, disappointingly) broad set of options for the future in its ‘five scenarios’ 60th anniversary document emphasises the lack of certainty over the journey’s direction and destination. The phrase ‘variable geometry’ – popularised during the 1990s – remains the best description of the continent’s present and future set-up. The British economy so far has been relatively undisturbed by the referendum result – but shocks may still be in store. The British chancellor may need to reassess his plans and impose new cuts, argues Vicky Pryce in her review of Philip Hammond’s first Budget. David Marsh draws attention to the political repercussions of a prospective second referendum on Scottish independence. Our monthly Advisers Network poll focuses on the likely outcome of the twoyear negotiation period, with a small majority of those polled concluding that a deal acceptable to both the UK and EU27 will materialise.

Outside Europe, Carlos Giraldo argues that, despite vulnerability to difficult external conditions, the economic backdrop remains positive for Latin America. One external risk is monetary tightening in the US. Darrell Delamaide states how steady improvement of the domestic economy is making the Federal Reserve more confident about raising interest rates twice again this year. The choices are less obvious for the Bank of Japan: Sayuri Shirai reflects on the dilemma between short-term, large-scale monetary accommodation and a more restrained pace of easing that may last for longer. On Africa, Mthuli Ncube highlights the importance of interoperability for models of mobile banking.

We close with three book reviews. John Nugée surveys the reflections of Yanis Varoufakis on the euro area and Greek crises in And The Weak Suffer What They Must?. Danae Kyriakopoulou compares them with those of another former Greek finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, as revealed in Game Over. Lord (Meghnad) Desai reflects on the history of monetary theory and policy-making of the past 50 years through Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan, The Man Who Knew.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please
contact membership@omfif.org

March cover 500

March 2017 edition

Women in central banking remain a very small but powerful minority. Alongside well known cases such as Janet Yellen of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Russia’s Elvira Nabiullina (featured on our cover), only 6.5% of central banks are headed by women. This corresponds to 12 institutions, down from 15 last year when OMFIF last conducted research into the gender balance of central banks.

Our research has been expanded this year to present a more nuanced picture. The OMFIF Global Public Investor Gender Balance Index takes account not only of governors but also of deputy governors and other senior central bank officials. The results are more encouraging. The research will be launched on 8 March, celebrated around the world as International Women’s Day. In commemoration, this month’s Bulletin is an all-female author issue featuring contributions from 14 women across central banking, academia, policy and capital markets, and from jurisdictions spanning California to Australia and Turkey to Thailand.

While most women in senior positions rightly want to be recognised for their skills and qualifications alone, rather than for their gender, it is important to raise awareness about their relative scarcity in central banking. Jenny Corbett presents evidence on the positive effects of female role models on the appeal of economics to women. In two words: gender matters. The world economy would also be a great beneficiary of improving opportunities for women in the workplace, argues Christine Lagarde. Vicky Pryce suggests employment quotas as the way to achieve this. Interest in investing among women is a historical phenomenon, according to a book by Amy Froide on Britain’s late-17th century financial revolution. In her review, Rachel Pine worries that the encouraging trend of that period has now weakened.

Minouche Shafik reminds us that, at a time when the public has come to question experts, humility and trustworthiness are vital characteristics. This applies to political leaders, too. Marsha Vande Berg reflects on the lost opportunity to catalyse new thinking about the potential for female candidates following Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the US presidential election.

An accord between two of the world’s most powerful women, Angela Merkel and Christine Lagarde, over Greece’s debt problem was key to calming markets after a period of uncertainty, notes Danae Kyriakopoulou. With Greece out of the headlines, Europe has turned its attention to the French presidential election, where there are risks voters could turn away from the mainstream, according to Sarah Hewin. The prospect of a victory for Marine Le Pen, and a potential French exit from the euro, has unsettled markets. The path of Britain out of the European Union could act as a guide, or deterrent, for other countries contemplating an exit. Linda Yueh analyses the trade options for the UK outside the single market. Aslihan Gedik presents the dilemmas for Turkey’s central bank in the light of exchange rate volatility.

On emerging markets, Magdalena Polan questions the very concept as several economies in the grouping have effectively ‘emerged’. But many still face challenges. Tarisa Watanagase highlights the need for policy responses to population aging in developing economies. 

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please
contact membership@omfif.org

 

Feb B Cover

February 2017 edition

Latin America has been largely out of the headlines. But behind the scenes, the continent is going through a dynamic transition, as illustrated by the collection of articles accompanying this month’s Bulletin cover story.

David Smith writes the inaugural piece in a new OMFIF series on ‘World Leaders in 2017’, presenting the challenges and opportunities for Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri. Reforms and the resolution of corruption scandals will be vital for Brazil, argues Winston Moore, but the economic fundamentals remain sound. Colombia is more exposed to the vagaries of the international economy, argue Ricardo Adrogué, Brigitte Posch and Michael Simpson. President Nicolás Maduro’s demonetisation experiment in Venezuela has brought the economy into chaos. Steve Hanke proposes dollarisation as a potential solution.

This will become increasingly difficult, however, as the dollar gathers further strength. Darrell Delamaide suggests that it is likely that the Federal Reserve will tighten faster than the current dot plots suggest. Donald Trump’s expansionary policies would motivate such an approach, with more investment needed to reinvigorate the country’s infrastructure, argues Meghnad Desai. But, as Marsha Vande Berg reminds us, we should prepare for unintended consequences from changes in policy direction.

The third Focus report in our series on global financial centres profiles Singapore, the location of OMFIF’s Asia office. In an OMFIF interview, Ravi Menon highlights the advantages of Singapore as an international gateway. Ben Robinson and Adam Cotter emphasise its evolving role as a hub for renminbi trading and for Chinese companies looking to finance regional expansion.

Singapore’s appeal hinges on attitudes towards globalisation in Asia and the West. Antonio de Lecea proposes a model for East-West co-operation to promote globalisation while correcting for its distributional effects. China’s President Xi Jinping has emerged as the new proponent of globalisation, writes Adam Cotter. This has caused some to hail China as the new de facto world leader. However, when polled, the majority of our Advisers Network said it was too soon for China to take over from the US in world leadership.

Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob draws attention to the impact on inflation from changes in the structure of trade and rising competitive pressures.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please
contact membership@omfif.org

 

Jan 2017 cover

January 2017 edition

Last year marked the dress rehearsal for major political and economic shifts. In 2017 the curtain goes up for the real show. The UK vote to leave the European Union, the election of Donald Trump, and Italy’s rejection of constitutional reform proposals were serious disturbances. This year the electorates’ decisions take effect.

Emerging markets could be hit next. Ultra-low rates in advanced economies motivated huge capital inflows into emerging markets. But the Fed is changing course and will raise rates at least three times this year, predicts Darrell Delamaide. This creates vulnerabilities in emerging markets both directly, in terms of capital outflows, and indirectly, through dollar appreciation. China’s slowdown and own debt problems bring more uncertainty.

David Mann emphasises the important trade and financial linkages between Asia and the US and suggests that the adjustment to higher US rates will come mainly through exchange rates. Phyllis Papadavid highlights how tighter Fed policy poses difficulties for financing infrastructure projects in Africa. The longer-term outlook for the continent is mixed. Mthuli Ncube points to the huge potential of digital financial services, while Danae Kyriakopoulou explains constraints from Africa’s productivity puzzle.

In the monthly Focus containing the Advisory Board’s 2017 predictions, we opine that many of the biggest shock waves will originate in the US. Tensions in global geopolitics, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, create substantial risks. A shift in the economic mix from monetary to fiscal policy threatens global bond markets and could also be suboptimal for the US economy, notes Steve Hanke.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

OMFIF Bulletin December 2016-cover (3)

December 2016 edition

Central banks are under fire, not for the typical reason of high interest rates, but because of low ones. Following the expected US rate rise in mid-December – only the second formal Federal Reserve credit tightening in 10 years – the heat is not likely to die down, points out Darrell Delamaide. OMFIF’s November edition was dedicated to an international shift to tighter monetary and looser fiscal policy – now apparent after the election of Donald Trump. The December Bulletin focuses on another turning tide: greater constraints on central bank independence.

Central banks are guided not just by statute and practice, but by the power of personality. As David Marsh notes, governments will have an unusual opportunity to stamp their mark on monetary decision-making. In the next three years, governors of the top six worldwide central banks – the Fed, People’s Bank of China, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Germany’s Bundesbank – reach the end of their terms and may be replaced by new faces.

Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Janet Yellen has generated headlines even before he moves into the White House. Reginald Dale, Brian Reading and John Kornblum, reflect on Trump’s victory and the nature of the presidential campaign.

Andrew Large, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, investigates the problem of central banks’ enlarged mandates. Øystein Olsen, governor of Norges Bank, explains the complications for central banks stemming from lack of support in other policy areas. Mojmir Hampl, deputy governor of the Czech National Bank, discusses how central banks must explain their changing roles to the public. Focus on weakening the exchange rate raises the risk of currency wars, warns Linda Yueh.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

November Cover (2)

November 2016 edition

The world’s centre of economic gravity is shifting east. Following impressive rates of economic development, Asia's influence is now spreading to areas beyond trade and investment, including financial flows, global currency reserves, and banking and capital market supervision and regulation. On 16 November, OMFIF is opening its first overseas office in Singapore. Adam Cotter, OMFIF’s Head of Asia, outlines our forthcoming activities in the region.

October saw the renminbi’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right. While the dollar’s dominance will take a long time to fade, as Steve Hanke and Javier Guzmán Calafell note, a move towards a multicurrency system in which the renminbi is a protagonist is inevitable. This month’s Focus Report, with contributions from Le XiaYaseen Anwar, and OMFIF’s own research staff, highlights the growing systemic nature of the renminbi swap network.

The outlook for the renminbi will be driven by China’s economic trajectory. Following fears of a hard landing earlier this year, November’s Advisory Board Poll sets a calming tone: only 6% of Advisory Board members expect China to experience a recession over the coming five years.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

October Bulletin 2016 - Cover

October 2016 edition

Central bankers have responded to the global financial crisis with a mix of unconventional policies, including negative rates and asset purchases. Addressing September’s OMFIF main meeting in Rome, in comments reproduced in this month’s Bulletin, Banca d’Italia Governor Ignazio Visco noted that such policies helped cushion the initial shock, and that subsequent GDP growth and inflation would have been lower without them. But they have hardly provided a panacea. As Visco noted, such policies have distorted markets and created risks for financial stability.

Extraordinarily loose policies have failed to boost growth substantially and created dangerous debt overhangs in many economies. There have been some collateral effects too, examined in the October Bulletin. Charles Goodhart and Geoffrey Wood argue that such measures have hurt bank profitability. Stijn Claessens and Nicholas Coleman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Michael Donnelly of MIT, consider evidence on the effect on banks’ net interest margins. Ben Robinson presents the findings of an OMFIF report, produced in conjunction with BNY Mellon, showing that unconventional policies have reduced the supply of liquid assets for collateral. Panicos Demetriades, former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, highlights the negative consequences for central banks’ credibility and the notion of their independence.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

September Bulletin Front Cover (294 X 380) (1)

September 2016 edition

India tops the bill of the first OMFIF Bulletin after the summer break, with articles by Meghnad Desai, Moorad Choudhry and Balamurali Radhakrishnan. Narendra Modi, the prime minister, has passed a milestone with agreement on the Goods and Services Tax amendment – a major achievement on India’s route towards a more market-orientated economy. The country is now out in front as the fastest growing of the five so-called Brics economies. And the Reserve Bank of India has a new governor, Urjit Patel, a low-key yet well regarded central banker who has to show his spurs in taking over from the mercurial Raghuram Rajan.

The September Bulletin marks the launch of a series of Focus reports on the impact of the UK decision to leave the European Union on financial centres in Europe. The first issue focuses on Luxembourg and how the Grand Duchy is attempting to capitalise on new expansion opportunities. Nicolas Mackel, in charge of Luxembourg financial promotion, says it can realise this aim by working with, not against the UK.

John Mourmouras of the Bank of Greece and John Kornblum, a former US ambassador, provide post-referendum commentaries. In another centrepiece report, David Marsh and Ben Robinson investigate the historical background to the last few years’ shift in central banks’ thinking on gold.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

July Bulletin Cover (294)

July-August 2016 edition

The ripples of the UK’s 23 June vote to leave the European Union are spreading internationally. Sterling, the third most important reserve currency, has fallen by more than 10% against the dollar, interest rate rises everywhere have been put on hold, and one more source of risk is stalking the global economy. Disarray in Britain’s political ranks throws up a 21st century version of The Comedy of Errors.

One important side effect: Theresa May, the quietly confident UK home secretary, is favourite to take over in September from departing Prime Minister David Cameron – joining Angela Merkel, Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen in a march of female economic power.

The July-August edition of the Bulletin analyses the ramifications of the EU’ biggest setback since it was set up in 1958 as the six-member European Economic Community. Niels Thygesen in Copenhagen, Philippe Lagayette in Paris, Stuart Mackintosh in Washington and Jacques Lafitte in Brussels provide views from Europe and the US. Peter Warburton and Federico Corrado investigate the post-referendum challenge for Swiss monetary policy. Ben Robinson describes how emerging market central banks, in particular the People’s Bank of China, are reacting to European upheavals.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

Bulletin June Cover 294 (1)

June 2016 edition

Each of the world’s major trading and transaction currencies – the dollar, euro, sterling, yen and now the renminbi – is beset by policy uncertainty and doubt. Volatile currency cargoes are heading towards cloudy horizons on storm-tossed seas.

Central banks, despite the undoubted costs of maintaining high reserves, believe it is even more costly and unpleasant not to have adequate stocks when times are tough. Demand for, and competition between, reserve currencies will persist.

These themes are covered in the June Bulletin by Gary Smith and John Nugée, and were high on the agenda at a seminar on a looming system of multiple reserve currencies organised by the International Monetary Fund and the Swiss National Bank in Zurich on 10 May. This month’s edition reproduces some of the introductory thoughts on the challenge to dollar ‘dominance’ spelled out to the meeting by Claudio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

May 2016 Bulletin Cover 294 (2)

May 2016 edition

The May Bulletin analyses the key issues confronting the US electorate ahead of November's presidential election. Marsha Vande Berg focuses on wage stagnation and the nation’s desire to resuscitate the American dream. Efraim Chalamish examines Chinese investment in the US, a principal source of fear about outside interference. Darrell Delamaide investigates how the Federal Reserve is signalling allayed concerns about global economic and financial hazards, possibly foreshadowing a rate rise later this summer. Ben Robinson looks at the rising dollar and the effect on emerging market currencies.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

OMFIF Bulletin April 2016 (cover) (3)

April 2016 edition

OMFIF’s annual index of the role of women in central banking, published in the April Bulletin, shows only a slight improvement, and even some slippage, compared with the findings of our last survey a year ago. The index moved up slightly to 2.19 (out of a maximum of 10) at the end of 2015, from 2.07 the year before. With Wendy Craigg of the Central Bank of the Bahamas and Zeti Akhtar Aziz of Bank Negara Malaysia stepping down this year, 2016 may turn out to be a year of setbacks for female prominence in central banking. The April edition puts negative interest rates and the gradual emergence of a multicurrency reserve system under the spotlight, with articles by José Manuel González-Páramo, Barnabás Virág, Ben Robinson and Ezechiel Copic.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

March -2016-01-web

March 2016 edition

The March edition of the Bulletin puts Japanese monetary policies and the economic stance of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe under the spotlight. Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, breached a taboo in January by cutting interest rates into negative territory, introducing a set of exemptions to protect banking profits. This is part of a macroeconomic remodelling – dubbed ‘Abenomics 2.0’, underlining that the first version, including massive purchases of government bonds, has not worked as planned. Our coverage includes articles by Shumpei Takemori, Akinari Horii, Sahoko Kaji, Chris Scicluna and Grant Lewis, and John West.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

February 2016 Cover

February 2016 edition

The February 2016 Bulletin focuses on China and the effects of a series of challenging transitions. The world’s second-largest economy is moving towards a more market-driven approach and opening its capital markets at a time of uncertainty over renminbi policy. This coincides with the Communist party’s struggle to maintain its hold over an increasingly wealthy, internationally mobile and politically astute population. These trends are dissected by Jonathan Fenby, Ben Robinson, John Adams, Ben Shenglin, Marcello Minenna, Edoardo Reviglio and Willem Middelkoop.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

Jan 2016 cover (1)

January 2016 Edition

OMFIF has declared 2016 the ‘Year of the Multicurrency System’, with diverse currencies competing for status and clout in a crowded and chaotic monetary world. As different monetary authorities set out on diverse policy courses, the January Bulletin describes the tensions besetting the currencies that from 1 October will make up the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right – the dollar, euro, sterling, yen and renminbi. We focus on the trials facing the European single currency.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

December Bulletin Cover (no Banner)

December 2015 Edition

In the December Bulletin, OMFIF explores the rise of populist parties and the return of strong leaders across Europe and neighbouring regions as a result of international political and security challenges. Our writers are sceptical whether this phenomenon will provide ‘strongman returns’ for investors. Across many countries the desire for physical security may trump concerns over freedom and liberty, with important consequences.

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

 

 

Cover Of The Bulletin Nov 2015

November 2015 Edition

OMFIF writers examine the delicate geopolitical and financial relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia over Riyadh’s attempts to keep oil prices low and squeeze out high-cost producers. Saudi Arabia is running down its foreign exchange reserves and increasing borrowing to maintain spending on domestic infrastructure projects, but the International Monetary Fund has warned that it may be depleting its savings too fast. As the November editorial says, ‘In seeking stability elsewhere, Riyadh may be opening itself up to destabilisation.’

Click here to read the press release. To subscribe please contact membership@omfif.org

 

The OMFIF Bulletin is available to OMFIF members, and to non-members on a subscription basis. To subscribe, please contact membership@omfif.org

Last year marked the dress rehearsal for major political and economic shifts. In 2017 the curtain goes up for the real show. The UK vote to leave the European Union, the election of Donald Trump, and Italy’s rejection of constitutional reform proposals were serious disturbances. This year the electorates’ decisions take effect.

Emerging markets could be hit next. Ultra-low rates in advanced economies motivated huge capital inflows into emerging markets. But the Fed is changing course and will raise rates at least three times this year, predicts Darrell Delamaide. This creates vulnerabilities in emerging markets both directly, in terms of capital outflows, and indirectly, through dollar appreciation. China’s slowdown and own debt problems bring more uncertainty.

David Mann emphasises the important trade and financial linkages between Asia and the US and suggests that the adjustment to higher US rates will come mainly through exchange rates. Phyllis Papadavid highlights how tighter Fed policy poses difficulties for financing infrastructure projects in Africa. The longer-term outlook for the continent is mixed. Mthuli Ncube points to the huge potential of digital financial services, while Danae Kyriakopoulou explains constraints from Africa’s productivity puzzle.

In the monthly Focus containing the Advisory Board’s 2017 predictions, we opine that many of the biggest shock waves will originate in the US. Tensions in global geopolitics, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, create substantial risks. A shift in the economic mix from monetary to fiscal policy threatens global bond markets and could also be suboptimal for the US economy, notes Steve Hanke.

Despite rising inflation, US-style tightening is unlikely elsewhere. As John Mourmouras argues, central banks are independent but they are also interdependent with other areas of policy and may be obliged to overreact to shocks when decisions elsewhere move in different directions.

One way to boost the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy would be to abolish cash. Danae Kyriakopoulou reviews Kenneth Rogoff’s proposal in The Curse of Cash. We mark the passing of Hans Tietmeyer, the former Bundesbank chief, a political technocrat who negotiated and presided over the demise of the D-mark.

 

The defining characteristic of the past two years has been the rise in anti-globalisation sentiment, expressed through the UK’s vote to exit the European Union, the support for Donald Trump’s unilateralist agenda, and the introduction of protectionist trade measures at the fastest pace since the 2008 financial crisis. This month’s Bulletin focuses on global flows – of capital, goods and people – looking at how they have developed in the post-crisis environment and analysing the political and economic challenges.Arnór Sighvatsson, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Iceland, discusses Iceland’s experience with capital flows management and presents the benefits of the special reserve requirement as a means for achieving a beneficial composition of flows. Danae Kyriakopoulou reflects on the changed nature of financial globalisation in the post-crisis period, with a greater role for foreign direct investment compared with cross-border lending. The 2008 crisis exposed the difficulty of modelling global financial markets, writes George Hoguet in his review of Richard Bookstaber’s The End of Theory. Ben Robinson discusses the factors affecting the changed relationship between trade and GDP, forecasting a prolonged period of disappointing trade growth. However, it is easy to overstate the negative scenarios for globalisation, warns Gabriel Stein in his review of Stephen King’s Grave New World. In the EU, Brexit and the future of trade dominate the debate. Plutarchos Sakellaris discusses the origins of modern anti-establishment attitudes in Europe, while Szilárd Benk and Péter Gábriel of Magyar Nemzeti Bank examine the impact of intra-EU migration.On emerging markets, Atish Ghosh, Jonathan Ostry and Mahvash Qureshi present insights from an International Monetary Fund study on proactive macroeconomic management to avoid crises in the face of capital flows volatility. Such volatility and the mismanagement of flows played an important role in the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Many of these problems continue to trouble Asia. Gao Haihong examines the challenges for China’s capital controls and exchange rate policies as it seeks to internationalise the renminbi. Bhavin Patel writes about improving financial infrastructure to facilitate the renminbi’s use in cross-border payments, and Kat Usita discusses Chinese investment in Africa. 2017 marks the 10th anniversary of the European Investment Bank’s first green bond issue. However, caution is needed to avoid greenwashing, warns Steve Hanke, who presents a new methodology to measure the sustainability and greenness of production processes. September 2017 commemorates, too, 25 years since ‘Black Wednesday’, the day Britain exited Europe’s exchange rate mechanism. David Marsh presents the lessons from the episode spelled out in the OMFIF Press book Six Days in September: Black Wednesday, Brexit and the making of Europe. Central bankers today have different sets of problems. Darrell Delamaide summarises the discussions at this year’s Jackson Hole meeting, while Gary Smith discusses the implications for monetary policy of the changed relationship between inflation and unemployment. Hervé Le Bihan and Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau, of the Banque de France, present insights from unconventional methods of measuring inflation expectations, concluding that the risk of a long period of ‘lowflation’ remains.Early discussions have started about who will be at the helm of the European Central Bank once President Mario Draghi’s term ends in 2019. Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, is the most likely successor, according to this month’s OMFIF Advisers Network poll. This could entrench Germany’s soft power in Europe. In his review of Paul Lever’s Berlin Rules, Robert Bischof discusses the rise of Europe’s ‘reluctant hegemon’ on the world stage.

THE OMFIF MONTHLY BULLETIN