The UK political and economic establishment has been gripped by a bout of instability over the potential deposition of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Wading through a tide of recrimination over poor policy communication and lack of political deftness, the leader of the ruling Labour party faces an uncertain future.
On a central issue, however, there should be clarity: Starmer’s ousting by Labour rebels, at a delicate time for Britain’s economy and place in the world, would be an act of collective folly – for six reasons.
1. Mandelson controversy is a sideshow, not a reckoning
The current point of contention – controversy over last year’s appointment of now-disgraced former Labour peer Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US – should be, for Starmer, a relative sideshow, rather than a defining crisis. Mandelson is facing a criminal investigation into allegations that he passed, while previously in government, market-sensitive information to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer has sensibly tried to defuse the row by parting company with Morgan McSweeney, his former chief of staff responsible for vetting Mandelson.
Other officials may be heading for the exit. And Starmer should be ready to appoint a new high-level member of parliament with strong working-class links to his inner circle to overcome the impression that the Labour party is too ‘cosmopolitan’ and London-centric. Unlike US President Donald Trump and Howard Lutnick, his commerce secretary, Starmer has never met Epstein or been involved in his misdemeanours.
2. Continuity in foreign policy is crucial
In a supremely difficult period for relations with and between the US and Chinese superpowers, Russia and the European Union, Starmer has emerged as a key international figure. He has managed to maintain an even keel with Trump and secured good working relationships with the leaders of France, Germany and the European Commission. He is also presiding over a necessary rapprochement with China.
Cautious rebuilding of economic and political relations with the EU, repairing some of the damage to both Britain and the rest of Europe from the UK’s withdrawal in 2020, is starting to produce modest rewards. With a Ukraine-Russian peace process now underway, partly triggered by Trump-imposed deadlines, Starmer is an important part of efforts to achieve stability between Europe and Russia. He would be leaving the stage at the wrong time.
3. The numbers still favour Starmer
Starmer – though unpopular in the polls and heading towards setbacks in municipal elections in May – has a near-impregnable working majority in the House of Commons of 168 seats. He won the July 2024 election with a larger majority (helped by the vagaries of Britain’s first-past-the post voting system) than any post-war government apart from former Prime Minister Tony Blair in his landslide 1997 victory.
Starmer is the sole Labour leader to have won a general election since Blair’s last victory in 2005. Furthermore, Labour faces a period of almost three and a half years before the latest date for the next scheduled parliamentary poll – a far wider margin than governments in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
4. Economically, the UK is not performing poorly
Inflation and mortgage interest rates – that most reliable bellwether of Britain’s political climate – are falling. Annual growth of gross domestic product of around 1.5% is far lower than pre-2007-8 financial crisis standards but remains resolutely in the middle-ground of the Group of Seven main industrial countries. According to the International Monetary Fund, the UK will have outranked Germany, France and Italy in both 2025 and 2026.
The UK’s combined political-economic challenges – immigration, living standards, healthcare, education, productivity, demography, digitalisation – are common to the US and all European neighbours. Some of these issues may start to look less problematic before the next election.
5. Alternatives to Starmer are unappealing
No obvious successor within the Labour party appears capable of either rallying the party internally or damping the popularity of opposition parties. These include the radical nationalist anti-EU Reform (leading the opinion polls with roughly 30% support against 20% for Labour) as well as the Conservatives and Greens.
Wes Streeting, the popular health secretary, is weakened by his past associations with Mandelson. Angela Rayner, the former deputy leader who was forced to resign in September 2025 in a controversy over unpaid tax on a flat purchase, would be a liability as prime minister in view of probable resurfacing of allegations over her financial affairs. Andy Burnham, another Labour rival, who quit Westminster nine years ago to become a successful mayor of Greater Manchester, is out of the running for the time being because of his lack of a parliamentary seat.
6. Omens from past Labour leadership changes are unpropitious
In 1976, James Callaghan became prime minister after Harold Wilson – victor in four general elections – stepped down as a result of incipient Alzheimer’s disease. In 2007, Blair gave up the premiership to Gordon Brown, his chancellor of the exchequer and long-time rival, in an orchestrated climbdown which gave Brown the unpleasant task of weathering the repercussions of the financial crisis. On both occasions, the new Labour prime minister stumbled on before succumbing at the next general elections (in 1979 and 2010) to Tory administrations that remained in power, respectively, for 18 and 14 years.
The Conservatives’ record has not been good, either. As a result of four failed Conservative administrations since 2016, Britain has had more prime ministers (six against five) than Italy over the past decade.
On the eve of the 10th anniversary of the EU referendum in June 2016, an untimely Labour leadership battle would once again demonstrate to the world that Britain had lost its way. Removing Starmer would be a debilitating distraction diminishing the UK and the whole of Europe.
David Marsh is Chairman at OMFIF.
Image credit: Chris Boland
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