France after 7 July: The end of Macron – Politics, markets and the road to 2027

Following a 7 July decision on the far-right Rassemblement National candidacy, France faces a fraught pre-electoral period leading to the April 2027 poll, marking the end of Emmanuel Macron’s two-term ten-year presidency.

Jordan Bardella, the RN president, is on track to become the next president, according to latest opinion polls, although much could change in the next nine months. An appeal court ruling on 7 July on Marine Le Pen’s electoral ban over fraud charges could prove decisive for the presidential race, potentially confirming Jordan Bardella as the RN candidate.

Popular support is intensifying for extremist parties on both left and right. Macron-linked centrist parties are still jostling to find a credible unified candidate.

Against this background, this roundtable explores the state of France’s political economy and the outlook for macroeconomic policy, fiscal sustainability, investment and France’s role in Europe in the run-up to the 2027 presidential election.