A series of truly unexpected electoral outcomes followed in quick succession in late October – in the space of just three days. In Brazil, left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defied first-round expectations to secure victory over far-right Flávio Bolsonaro. In Israel’s highest voter turnout in 50 years, the electorate delivered a hung parliament, leaving Benjamin Netanyahu’s future uncertain. And Serbia’s student-led opposition successfully challenged long-standing pro-Russia President Aleksandar Vučić, creating questions about the country’s relationship with Europe.
Another major test awaits as the US midterms on 3 November stand to determine whether voters are similarly prepared to constrain the party in power. The results will also offer a measure of Washington’s influence over these political shifts. To discuss the most likely outcomes, OMFIF convened a roundtable to examine the implications of the midterms on markets, regulation, geopolitics and the American public.
Regarding the verdict, two political commentators at the roundtable agreed that they expect the Democrats to take the House of Representatives, pointing to the historical tendency for voters to tire of the party in power and seek a change in direction at the midterms. They were more uncertain on the outlook for the Senate. Acknowledging that a Democratic House would effectively turn President Donald Trump into a ‘lame duck’, all participants agreed that a Democratic Congress under a Republican president would result in gridlock and regulatory debate rather than major legislative change.
Energy, food, healthcare and housing costs remain high on the list of voter concerns, giving Democrats an opportunity to challenge the administration’s economic record. On top of that, one commentator raised corruption as a pertinent issue, with Democrats expected to connect questions of political accountability to the everyday financial pressures facing households.
Not unusually for midterm elections, the sitting president is very unpopular. But American voters are feeling the impact of Trump’s tariff policy and war in Iran, facing high energy bills and unaffordable costs of living. As such, the election is also an opportunity for voters to air their views on Trump’s actions on the global stage as much as domestically.
Brazil bucks the trend
Trump’s influence extends well beyond the US, particularly across Latin America, where his administration has cultivated relationships with ideologically aligned leaders – until Brazil’s presidential runoff bucked the trend. Lula secured a fourth, non-consecutive presidential term in October, defeating Bolsonaro with a narrow 51.8% of valid votes. But it is a pivotal win even beyond Brazil’s borders.
Latin America’s broader right-wing political turn has seen candidates campaigning on security, defence, economic liberalisation and opposition to established left-wing governments. Trump has cultivated relationships with like-minded leaders across the region, such as Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele.
However, Lula’s return to office in the region’s largest economy and democracy is keeping the right-wing wave at bay and carries with it substantial policy implications. Environmental protection remains a priority, namely the commitment to ending deforestation of the Amazon Rainforest by 2030 and expanding renewable energy in Brazil. This, along with pledges to strengthen social welfare and protect workers’ rights, show a marked move away from predecessor Jair Bolsonaro’s more deregulatory approach, which prioritised agribusiness expansion and relaxed environmental protections.
On the foreign policy and sovereignty front, Lula is doubling down on deepening Latin American integration, while negotiating economic relations with the US. The slim victory makes clear Brazil’s enduring political divisions, but the result sees a meaningful setback for the Trump-aligned political project in Latin America.
Serbia rattles the pro-Putin establishment
Perhaps the week’s most unexpected result came from Serbia, where a student-led movement, The Student List, challenged the establishment of President Vučić, the populist right-wing and pro-Vladimir Putin leader of 12 years. The movement formed as a result of two years of protests about the lack of investment in infrastructure following the collapse of a railway station canopy in 2024, which killed 16 people. The tragedy brought together academics, professionals and activists, with students playing a key role in selecting representatives and coordinating the campaign.
The movement’s electoral success reflects growing public anger over corruption and the concentration of political power. Despite not having a designated leader or established governing structure, its immediate priority as of late October is to pursue institutional accountability by dismissing corrupt officials. Yet its decentralised brand of governance will continue to prompt questions about how it will translate public support into coherent policy – particularly for investors .
Nevertheless, the result is part of a wider phenomenon of youth-led mobilisation and an increasing willingness in voters to support movements outside conventional party structures when established institutions fail to command public trust. Viewed against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the need for greater coordination on defence in Europe, the result leads to big questions about the future of Serbia within Europe. Marta Kos, European Union enlargement commissioner, said ‘The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together’.
Hung parliament in Israel
Israel’s 27 October general election produced a different kind of upheaval. In the country’s nearly 90-year history, turnout reached its highest level in decades, but voters delivered no clear parliamentary majority.
The election pitted Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition against an opposition bloc centred on former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The result left Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, against 48 for the main opposition alliance, with Arab-led parties securing the remaining 19. Neither bloc reached the 61 seats required to form a government, leaving Israel facing potentially protracted coalition negotiations.
Israel continues to face international pressures due to the genocide in Gaza and humanitarian catastrophe in Palestine. Meanwhile, US involvement is, and will continue to be, central to its security and diplomatic calculations by providing substantial military assistance and helping shape Gaza’s post-war arrangements. Regardless, investors and policy-makers will sit in uncertainty as prolonged coalition negotiations – and the outcome of the US elections – could delay decisions on defence spending, public finances and relations with international partners.
Taken together, all of these results have defied a simple narrative. Brazil has resisted a rightward turn, Serbia has challenged an entrenched establishment and Israel’s political future hangs in the balance. Against this, Americans now head to the polls to determine the outlook for the remainder of Trump’s term.
Whatever the outcome, these results reveal political environments in which established leadership can no longer take electoral support for granted in a turbulent world. This upheaval looks set to continue into 2027 with pivotal elections due in France and Germany, both of which look set to see challengers taking Europe by storm with global repercussions.
Janan Jama is Content Editor at OMFIF.
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