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'Multiple balancing acts'

Multiple balancing acts for May, Merkel

25 Jul 2016

The most intriguing resemblance between Theresa May and her German counterpart Angela Merkel is the delicacy and complexity of the multiple balancing acts both are performing within and outside their countries, says David Marsh.

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  • Trump could surprise on infrastructure

    Trump could surprise on infrastructure

    20 Jul 2016

    In a report on the policies of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, Meghnad Desai, chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board, asks whether he could surprise observers making dire predictions about his potential move into the White House, including in respect of infrastructure investment.

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  • Bullard ‘new narrative’ shift at Fed

    Bullard 'new narrative' shift at Fed

    18 Jul 2016

    The monetary about-face by James Bullard, the hawk-turned-dove St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president, has wide implications for international central bankers. Bullard’s ‘new narrative’, elaborated at an OMFIF meeting in St. Louis, could shake up how the Fed views the world.

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  • ECB easing 'four years behind the curve'

    ECB easing 'four years behind the curve'

    14 Jul 2016

    The European Central Bank is ‘four years behind the curve’ in easing monetary policy, with its balance sheet still at 2012 levels, while eventual Fed tightening will widen policy divergence, according to statements at OMFIF’s US Main Meeting at Washington university, St Louis.

    Failure to ‘harness forces of nationalism’

    Failure to 'harness nationalist forces'

    13 Jul 2016

    The result of the UK referendum on European Union membership stems from the failure of Britain’s two major parties to understand, let alone harness, the forces of nationalism, says Meghnad Desai, chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board, in an OMFIF Commentary.

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    Commentary

    • Britain’s slogan: I did it May way

      by David Marsh | Sat 30 Jul 2016

      David Marsh, OMFIF managing director, gave an interview to German news magazine Der Spiegel, published today. In the interview he discussed the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum decision to leave the EU, both in the UK and the rest of Europe, and Europe's new tandem of UK Prime Minister Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Why Clinton will win

      by John Kornblum in Berlin | Thu 28 Jul 2016

      John Kornblum, a long-time US state department official, former US ambassador to Germany, and a member of the OMFIF advisory board, gave an interview to Die Welt, the daily German newspaper (Andrea Seibel), published on 26 July. In the interview he discusses the election prospects of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and states his belief that Clinton will become the first female American president.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Erdogan's 'gift from God'

      by David Tonge in Istanbul | Wed 27 Jul 2016

      The impact of Turkey's failed military coup may be greater at home than abroad. Of the external factors setting limits on Turkey’s policies, its ties with the US and EU may be weakened, relations with the IMF are unlikely substantially to be changed, while those with Russia seem set to improve. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been pressing to amend the constitution to reinforce his powers. The coup attempt, which he has called ‘a gift from God’, has given him the chance of carrying out that aim.

      MARKET: Middle East and North Africa

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    • A chance for Chancellor Hammond

      by Brian Reading | Wed 27 Jul 2016

      Rising demand and falling supply explain Britain’s housing crisis – a blight on social mobility, labour market flexibility and growth, not just for now but for generations. If the UK wishes to profit from the new-found opportunities following last month’s vote to leave the European Union, then tackling Britain’s deeply detrimental housing imbalances should be high on the list of the new UK government’s priorities.

      MARKET: Europe

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    OMFIF Chart

    'Investment clock' shows gains for equities

    by Trevor Greetham

    The pick-up in global growth against a low inflation backdrop puts the investment cycle still in an equity-friendly ‘recovery’ phase, according to the Investment Clock, a model-based framework linking asset returns to different phases of the global business cycle.

    Investment clock

    UK's external financing needs

    by Ben Robinson

    One way of measuring economic vulnerability, says Moritz Kraemer of S&P Global in an OMFIF Commentary, is to analyse an economy’s annual gross external financing needs. The UK score is 755%, the highest among all 131 sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings.

    UK's external financing needs

    ECB voting rotation

    by Ben Robinson

    At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

    ECB voting rotation

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting
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    POST REFERENDUM CHART

    Brexit consequences for ECB QE

    Britain’s decision to leave the EU has important consequences for the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme, resulting in ‘overpurchasing’ of euro area peripheral state bonds at a crucial time for Italy in particular.

    Brexit consequences for ECB QE
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