[Skip to Content]

Register to receive the weekly OMFIF Commentary, on the stories behind global economic and financial news.

* Required Fields

Member Area Login

Forgotten Password?

Forgotten password

News
Bullard outlines case for tightening

Bullard case for rate tightening

26 May 2016

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told an OMFIF meeting in Singapore in the DBS Auditorium that a summer Fed rate rise was growing more likely, with a tighter labour market and accelerating prices the main determinants.

Achieving banking sector resilience

Achieving banking sector resilience

25 May 2016

The UK's settlement on bank capital is aimed at correcting banks' chronic undercapitalisation at the time of the financial crisis and achieving resilience without unreasonable costs, Martin Taylor, external member of the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee, told an OMFIF City lecture.

  • Click here to read more
  • Renminbi-isation 'would benefit' China

    Renminbi-isation 'would benefit' China

    24 May 2016

    Progressive use of the renminbi on world capital markets would serve several beneficial purposes for the Chinese leadership, according to a discussion at the inaugural Singapore meeting of the OMFIF Renminbi Liaison Network at the National University of Singapore.

    Tighter jobs market ‘pushing rates hike’

    Tighter jobs market ‘pushing rates hike’

    23 May 2016

    A tightening labour market, abating international economic tensions and gradually increasing inflation make a rise in US interest rates more likely, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, told an OMFIF audience in Beijing.

  • Click here to read more
  • Beijing meeting on renminbi reserve use

    Beijing meeting on renminbi reserve use

    23 May 2016

    The renminbi's nascent role as a world reserve currency can bring pitfalls as well as benefits during a delicate phase of Chinese reforms, participants said at the inaugural Beijing meeting of the OMFIF Renminbi Liaison Network at Renmin University.

    1 2 3 4

    Commentary

    • A vote for European balance

      by Thanos Papasavvas | Tue 31 May 2016

      The UK is likely to stay in the European Union after the 23 June vote. So I have been backing a contrarian positive outlook for sterling since its lows in March, when disquiet about a British exit was at its height. Europe's fragile economic and political equilibrium has been overly dependent on a balancing act performed by one person, German Chancellor Angela Merkel. A British exit, or indeed Merkel's own departure if she went precipitously, would cause Germany and Europe to face complex realpolitik challenges of the kind that confronted Otto von Bismarck, Germany’s legendary chancellor in the 1870s and 1880s. The best outcome for European stability would lie in the UK remaining inside the EU.

      MARKET: Europe

      OMFIF - HomePage
      View Commentary
    • Europe’s hopes and failures

      by Ray Kinsella in Dublin | Mon 30 May 2016

      A little exaggeration can season an argument. But it serves no purpose to present one side of the argument using such terminology as ‘quitter Brits’ who resent losing sovereignty to ‘unelected eurocrats’. In fact, member countries have begun to rein back sovereignty in areas such as the Schengen agreement. This underlines the extent of Europe's political failures and divisions. Respect for these different perspectives, as well as the historic nature of the decision, requires more reflective consideration and a different kind of language.

      MARKET: Europe

      OMFIF - HomePage
      View Commentary
    • Responding to incentives

      by John Mills in London | Sun 29 May 2016

      Much of the referendum debate has been on the economic consequences of Brexit. But if the economy turns down following the vote, Brexit is likely to have been a minor influence compared with other factors such as adverse global economic trends and huge imbalances in the UK economy. How well Britain does is more likely to depend in the short term on the policies the UK pursues in respect of maintaining open borders for trade, and on monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies to help rebalance the economy.

      MARKET: Europe

      OMFIF - HomePage
      View Commentary
    • Temer is just the start

      by Eduardo Borensztein | Fri 27 May 2016

      Brazil's new administration faces daunting challenges. Interim President Michel Temer has assumed power with conditional support in Congress and little popular support. His term is uncertain. An ambitious economic reform programme might be regarded as impossible under such conditions. But the opposite is true. Only by launching a vigorous reform initiative can the government afford to adopt a looser short-term macroeconomic stance, generate positive economic expectations and stabilise the economy.

      MARKET: Latin America

      OMFIF - HomePage
      View Commentary

    OMFIF Chart

    ECB voting rotation

    by Ben Robinson

    At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

    ECB voting rotation

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    by David Marsh and Ben Robinson

    The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    by William Baunton

    Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4

    Advisory Board View

    Advisory Board believes Clinton will win

    We asked Advisory Board members who they thought would be the next US president; which of the potential candidates would be most likely to promote sustainable US economic growth in the next two-to-three years; and which candidate would be most likely to bring about a rapprochement with Russia. Hillary Clinton was the runaway winner in all three categories.

    Advisory Board believes Clinton will win
    View All Polls