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Changes in the euro area following ECB QE were analysed by capital markets experts at the Fifth Deutsche Bundesbank-OMFIF Economists Meeting.
Masaaki Shirakawa, former Bank of Japan governor, voiced caution about the overall impact of QE around the world at the OMFIF City Lecture.
Policy-makers must refashion world governance following shifts in financial power, says former Hong Kong Treasury undersecretary Julia Leung.
Roughly 40 economists and capital markets specialists from Europe and further afield took part in the Bundesbank meeting, with discussions ranging over the inflation and growth outlook after the ECB's asset purchase programme, as well as the effects of the single supervisory mechanism.
Shirakawa listed parallels between QE in Japan and Europe, not hiding his scepticism about whether the policy would succeed in boosting inflation and growth. Among the points of convergence was the widespread perception that the central banks in both jurisdictions were 'the only game in town', and that exchange rate considerations - bringing down the value of the euro and the yen - were predominant.
The west should beware sparking negative reactions from Asia by refusal to adapt rules of international monetary behaviour, said Julia Leung, former Hong Kong Treasury undersecretary. Speaking at the launch of The Tides of Capital, Leung defended measures taken by Asian countries to protect their economies from the damaging effects of swirling international capital flows sparked by unorthodox western monetary policies.
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The arithmetic of the Greek debt is inexorable. It is unpayable in any reasonable time frame without subjecting the Greek population to a generation of misery. Meghnad Desai outlines two choices for Tsipras: one drastic, one only mildly catastrophic.
Alexis Tsipras, likely to be Greece’s next prime minister, will have to resolve the latest version of yet another ‘impossible trinity’: relax the economic squeeze, accomplish full-scale debt rescheduling and stay in the euro. Satisfactorily achieving all three aims may be well-nigh unachievable.
Whatever the exact nature of the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme, displeasure will prevail. Amid expectations that the ECB will announce a €50bn a month bond-buying programme, Europe’s monetary policy-makers are likely to end up disappointing both supporters and denigrators of aggressive easing policies.
The Bundesbank has watered down forthcoming euro area quantitative easing. Central banks will only be able to purchase their own countries’ bonds, at their own risk. The effective German opt-out from comprehensive support for other euro members compromises common monetary policy.
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