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  • Why the Fed should tighten in September - 28 Aug 2015

    The Fed decision is finely balanced. No one, probably not even Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself, can be certain of the outcome.

  • Greek and German lessons in dissimulation - 24 Aug 2015

    Angela Merkel and Alexis Tsipras, the German and Greek leaders, are keeping voters in the dark over the bail-out.

  • Marsh ‘surprised’ by sterling strength - 18 Aug 2015

    Surprisingly strong sterling is benefiting UK inflation, OMFIF Managing Director David Marsh said.

Why the Fed should tighten in September  (1)

The US Federal Reserve should ignore Wall Street pleading and raise interest rates in September

  • Read the Commentary here
  • Greek and German lessons in dissimulation

    Alexis Tsipras, likely to continue as Greek prime minister after next month’s election, appears to have achieved greater success than Angela Merkel, his main European sparring partner, in maintaining popularity despite promising the electorate unachievable goals.

  • Read the Commentary here
  • Marsh ‘surprised’ by sterling strength

    Strong sterling is benefiting UK inflation and lowering the chances of an early UK interest rate rise. But UK manufacturing companies are becoming uncompetitive. Meanwhile, with likely Fed rate hikes, the dollar is expected to rise further.  

  • Click here to watch the video
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    Commentary

    • Why the Fed should tighten in September

      by By Meghnad Desai and David Marsh | Fri 28 Aug 2015

      The Fed decision is finely balanced. No one, probably not even Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself, can be certain of the outcome. But here are 10 good reasons why she and her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee should opt for boldness and decide a 25 basis point rate rise at its next policy meeting on 16-17 September.

      MARKET: World

      OMFIF - HomePage
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    • Tsipras’ prize: debt relief like West Germany in 1953

      by David Marsh | Tue 25 Aug 2015

      Greek debt rescheduling is reminiscent of the relief West Germany gained at the 1953 London debt conference. With global economic storm clouds darkening, Greek voters will thank Tsipras for shifting the country’s borrowings on to concessionary terms. The big question is whether, once the generosity of Greek debt relief becomes widely known, other large debtors will demand similar concessions.

      MARKET: Europe

      OMFIF - HomePage
      View Commentary
    • Renminbi rebalancing signals reform urgency

      by Marsha Vande Berg | Fri 21 Aug 2015

      China’s moves to rebalance its economy using a two-reserve currency built around the dollar and the renminbi have sparked international concern over the latter’s status as a reserve currency and highlighted needs for reforms.

      MARKET: Asia-Pacific

      OMFIF - HomePage
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    • Italian plan and European political expediency

      by Gabriel Stein | Wed 19 Aug 2015

      Proposals from Italian economists Marcello Minenna and Edoardo Reviglio for reducing euro area bond spreads are divorced from reality. They would subjugate the ECB to political expediency and could bring economic collapse.

      MARKET: Europe

      OMFIF - HomePage
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    CHART OF THE WEEK

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    by William Baunton

    Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    History repeating itself

    by William Baunton

    Bear market grips Chinese stocks with echoes of 2007

    History repeating itself

    The mystery behind poor first quarter growth in the US

    by William Baunton

    Since 2010 the US has achieved steady growth of around 2% per annum despite poor, and arguably inconsistent, first quarter figures

    The mystery behind poor first quarter growth in the US

    Greece's difficult road ahead

    by William Baunton

    If Greece were to fail to make payments to the IMF, it would become the first advanced economy in history to default on an IMF loan

    Greece's forthcoming debt repayments
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    Advisory Board Poll

    OMFIF Advisory Board expect Chinese currency to join SDR

    The composition of the Special Drawing Right, the IMF's reserve asset, is under review. Over half the Advisory Board expect the renminbi to be included. Many remained sceptical, with 42% expecting the renminbi to be passed over this year but included in 2020, and 4% expecting it not to meet the criteria for inclusion.

    Advisory Board expect renminbi to join SDR
    View All Polls