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British drama overshadows Greek problems

UK drama overshadows Greek problems

27 Jun 2016

Extended problems facing Greece are a comparative sideshow after the drama over British EU exit, David Marsh said in a lecture at the ALB Graduate Business School in Athens.

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  • UK economy to 'stay on course'

    UK economy to 'stay on course'

    27 Jun 2016

    With a small amount of fiscal and monetary easing, the UK economy should manage to stay on course following the 23 June vote, says Meghnad Desai, chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board, in an OMFIF Commentary.

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  • Marsh on why Britain voted to leave EU

    Marsh on why Britain voted to leave EU

    24 Jun 2016

    David Marsh, OMFIF managing director, in an interview on CNBC gave his views on why the UK voted to leave the European Union in yesterday's referendum.

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  • UK 'convulsion' following Brexit vote

    UK faces 'convulsion' after Brexit vote

    24 Jun 2016

    Britain and the rest of Europe face political, economic and constitutional convulsion after a narrow vote favouring UK withdrawal from the European Union in yesterday’s referendum, says David Marsh, OMFIF's managing director.

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  • UK referendum series

    The OMFIF UK referendum series

    23 Jun 2016

    OMFIF today publishes the complete 110 articles in its UK EU referendum series. Launched on 29 February and completed on 23 June by Philip Middleton, deputy chairman of the Advisory Board, the series presents wide perspectives from Britain and around the world.

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    Commentary

    • Democracy the winner after nasty campaign

      by Brian Reading in London | Mon 27 Jun 2016

      Most voters were motivated by self-interest, what is best for individuals, without being able to see what is best for all, which nobody can. That is democracy. My generation voted 40 years ago, in the 1975 referendum, to stay in a customs union. We were denied a say on the Maastricht and Nice treaties which fundamentally changed the EU’s nature. Politics may be chaotic; that will be inevitable if representatives in the UK and in the EU learn better to represent the people. So democracy is the winner.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Global shock after UK exit vote

      by Desmond Lachman in Washington | Mon 27 Jun 2016

      The domestic and global consequences of the UK’s decision to leave the EU are likely to prove on a similar scale to Winston Churchill’s mistaken decision to return Britain to the gold standard at the wrong exchange rate in April 1925, or Margaret Thatcher’s fateful approval for Britain to join the exchange rate mechanism in October 1990. The vote is bound to result in considerable economic uncertainty over several years as the UK negotiates a formal exit and works out terms for its complex trade relations with Europe.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Now’s the time to reduce divisions

      by John Redwood in London | Mon 27 Jun 2016

      Ministers need to stress that the public voted to leave the EU, not to leave Europe. Most of us want to see more trade, more investment, more collaboration, more academic exchanges, more tourism and more joint cultural activity. We manage this with the US and Canada, for example, without belonging to a Union with them. We will manage it with the rest of the EU. The sooner uncertainties can be reduced, the better. Now is a time for reassurance and for reducing the divisions that the referendum has inevitably created.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • The future: neither paradise nor perdition

      by Meghnad Desai in London | Mon 27 Jun 2016

      There were many projections before the UK referendum on the possible economic effects of staying in or leaving the European Union. Now that the political decision has been made, we may reopen the question of the effects, with no need for exaggeration or endless doom-mongering. We can ignore the miracles promised by the Brexiteers or the dire predictions of the Remainers. What counts is forecasting the next 27 months or so when the UK will stay part of the EU.

      MARKET: Europe

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    OMFIF Chart

    'Investment clock' shows gains for equities

    by Trevor Greetham

    The pick-up in global growth against a low inflation backdrop puts us in the equity-friendly ‘recovery’ phase of the investment cycle, according to the Investment Clock, a model-based framework linking asset returns to different phases of the global business cycle.

    Investment clock

    UK's external financing needs

    by Ben Robinson

    One way of measuring economic vulnerability, says Moritz Kraemer of S&P Global in an OMFIF Commentary, is to analyse an economy’s annual gross external financing needs. The UK score is 755%, the highest among all 131 sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings.

    UK's external financing needs

    ECB voting rotation

    by Ben Robinson

    At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

    ECB voting rotation

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting
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    OMFIF BREXIT TRACKER

    Inconclusive polling

    The poll of polls provided no conclusive evidence for the 23 June outcome. The marginal Remain lead had been lost, with the 22 June 'pop' showing Leave at 44.0% and Remain at 43.5%.

    Remain loses lead
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