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Critical voices on ECB policy, Brexit

Critical voices on ECB policy, Brexit

4 Feb 2016

Economists from 20 countries discussed the European Central Bank's policy and the impact of a British EU exit at OMFIF's Economists Meeting in Frankfurt. Attendees criticised the ECB's lax monetary stance and called on governments to enact reforms.

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  • Guðmundsson spells out Iceland lessons

    Guðmundsson spells out Iceland lessons

    28 Jan 2016

    Central Bank of Iceland Governor Már Guðmundsson said flexible monetary policy had helped Iceland recover from the financial crisis. In an OMFIF City Lecture, he said unusual circumstances had facilitated a quicker-than-average recovery.

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  • Marsh 'Yes' in Swiss-UK debate on Europe

    Marsh 'Yes' in Swiss-UK Europe debate

    21 Jan 2016

    OMFIF Managing Director David Marsh and Damien Green MEP argued for UK EU membership at a debate hosted by the British-Swiss Chamber of Commerce. The motion, arguing exit would harm the UK and its partners, was carried by a large majority.

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  • OMFIF Multicurrency Year marks dollar competition

    Multicurrency Year, dollar challenge

    20 Jan 2016

    The OMFIF January Bulletin, focusing on the Multicurrency Year and the challenge to the dollar, is published today. Meghnad Desai and Jeffry Frieden, from Harvard University, visiting the OMFIF offices, are pictured with their copies.

  • Click here for more information about the Bulletin
  • Female triumvirate in power in 2016

    Female triumvirate ‘to stay in power’

    14 Jan 2016

    OMFIF's advisory board predicts that an international triumvirate of female leaders will hold sway in 2016, with Hillary Clinton securing the US presidency and Angela Merkel and Christine Largarde heading off challenges to their positions.

  • Click here for OMFIF's 2016 predictions
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    Commentary

    • Beijing’s currency contradictions

      by John Adams, recently in Beijing | Tue 2 Feb 2016

      Various aspects of the renminbi’s internationalisation are creating inevitable complications and conflicts. The current phase of economic weakening requires an export stimulus by depreciation, but national policy considerations demand monetary soundness. China has been pushing ahead with the renmimbi's internationalisation as a currency for trade, and this is set to go further. Weighing up the pros and cons of currency internationalisation is a central task of Beijing’s financial management.

      MARKET: China

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    • Time for US-China swap agreement

      by David Marsh | Mon 1 Feb 2016

      In the incomplete architecture of the developing multicurrency reserve system, one key element is missing: a swap line between the US and China. It is time the world’s two largest economies filled this lacuna by negotiating a Federal Reserve-People’s Bank of China swap agreement in each other’s currencies, with the aim of supplying dollar and renminbi liquidity on global financial markets. Such an accord would emphasise steadying the renminbi against its main trading partners, with a major potential effect in calming financial markets.

      MARKET: World

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    • Biculturalism and complexities of Brexit

      by Bob Bischof, Advisory Board | Fri 29 Jan 2016

      As a German living in the UK for 40 years, I would like the British to stay in the European Union. With my English hat on, it’s a bit less clear cut. To understand the British psyche, you need a touch of bicultural enlightenment. The more European or German politicians do to convince the Brits to remain in the EU, the more British eurosceptics will say the Europeans are acting for their own advantage. Much depends on how Europe portrays itself in the months leading up to voting day.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Governor’s lessons on Iceland’s crash

      by Ben Robinson | Fri 29 Jan 2016

      Speaking at an OMFIF City Lecture on 29 January, the governor of the Central Bank of Iceland discussed his conclusions from the financial crisis and the lessons for other countries. The role of capital controls and exchange rate flexibility were key to Iceland's recovery, but for other countries suffering from the crisis - particularly Greece - these policy tools are not available.

      MARKET: Europe

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    OMFIF Chart

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    by David Marsh and Ben Robinson

    The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    by William Baunton

    Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    History repeating itself

    by William Baunton

    Bear market grips Chinese stocks with echoes of 2007

    History repeating itself
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    Advisory Board View

    OMFIF Advisory Board expects $45-$50 oil price

    The OMFIF Advisory Board’s predictions for 2016 include that oil prices will rise to $45-$50 by the end of the year. Demand is growing modestly, but is outstripped by supply. Only a revolution in Saudi Arabia could push prices through the ceiling.

    OMFIF Advisory Board Predictions 2016
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