The unanchored central banker: fiscal dominance and the future of monetary policy
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan join OMFIF to discuss the shifting foundations of central bank independence in an era of mounting fiscal pressure. Drawing on their latest book, The Unanchored Central Banker, the discussion examines how ageing populations and rising public debt are reshaping the macroeconomic landscape, leading to fiscal dominance.
They discuss how China, artificial intelligence and migration may affect this, and they review key elements of monetary analysis, including the nature of the Phillips curve and the future of interest rates.
Speakers
Charles Goodhart
Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance
London School of Economics
Charles Goodhart
Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance
London School of Economics
Charles Goodhart’s career has alternated between academia (Cambridge, 1963-65; LSE, 1967/68; again 1985-date), and work in the official sector, mostly in the Bank of England (Department of Economic Affairs, 1965/66; Bank of England, 1968-85; Monetary Policy Committee, 1997-2000). He has been a specialist monetary economist, focussing on policy issues and on financial regulation. Recently he wrote, co-authored with Manoj Pradhan, a book on The Great Demographic Reversal, suggesting that the decades of disinflation and falling interest rates would come to an end. He has now written a sequel to that book describing current monetary and fiscal problems. He had previously authored numerous publications on monetary policy and ‘Goodhart’s Law’.
David Marsh
Chairman
OMFIF
David Marsh
Chairman
OMFIF
David Marsh is Chairman and Co-Founder of OMFIF. Before starting at OMFIF in late 2009, he worked for City merchant bank Robert Fleming, corporate finance boutique Hawkpoint, German management consultancy Droege and London investment firm London & Oxford. Marsh took over the chairmanship from John Plender on 1 January 2018 having been Managing Director since 2014. He moved to a non-executive role following John Orchard’s appointment as Chief Executive effective 1 January 2020.
Manoj Pradhan
Founder
Talking Heads Macro
Manoj Pradhan
Founder
Talking Heads Macro
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, an independent research firm based in London, and co-author of “The Great Demographic Reversal” with Charles Goodhart. Manoj was previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, where he led the Global Economics team, driving macroeconometric research into global economic themes. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of George Washington University and the State University of New York. He has a PhD in economics from George Washington University and a Master’s in Finance from the London Business School.