The agreement between Britain and the European Union for a 21-month Brexit transition period was welcome news to many concerned about the time required to prepare the parameters for the future relationship among the two partners. But while it provides temporary relief, the agreement does not eliminate the longer-term uncertainty around what the UK is transitioning to.
An uncertain global policy environment further complicates Brexit. The transition agreement requires critical decisions to be made during a period when the EU will be facing changes at the top. European Parliament elections take place in May 2019, while Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s term runs out in the autumn of that year.
On the economic front, this will coincide with the normalisation of monetary policy in developed markets, which could cause asset prices to reverse after an unusually long bull cycle. Additional challenges from increased protectionism in global trade, cyber scandals and threats to central bank independence make the outlook for Britain’s adventures in Brexitland (with apologies to Lewis Carroll) ‘curiouser and curiouser’.
The Bulletin brings together a diverse set of views on the future of finance. We host voices from central banks, development banks, academia, journalism, government and the private sector. Key contributors from this month include:
- Andrew Adonis, former Secretary of State for Transport and former Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission
- Liam Fox, UK Secretary of State for International Trade and Conservative Member of Parliament for North Somerset
- Ikuko Fueda-Samikawa, Director of Financial Research at the Japan Center for Economic Research
- John Reade, Chief Strategist at the World Gold Council