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Monetary Policy

21 March 2019 / Global

Next financial crisis may eclipse 2008

It is difficult to forecast when the next global economic recession will happen. It is much easier to predict its severity. Among the more disturbing vulnerabilities of the global economy is the large amount of debt spawned by the years of ultra-unorthodox monetary policy conducted by major central banks in advanced economies. According to the IMF, the global debt to GDP level is 250% – around 30 percentage points higher than it was on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, and the mispricing of global debt has become much more pervasive.

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07 March 2019 / Europe

Promoting gender balance across financial institutions

Gender Balance Index marking International Women’s Day

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25 February 2019 / Global

The potential for digital currencies

In Conversation: The potential for central bank digital currencies

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13 February 2019 / US

Sharp shift to Fed dovishness

The Federal Open Market Committee's decision at the end of January to pause rate increases was long telegraphed and widely expected. But the highly dovish messaging in the Federal Reserve statement and press conference by Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets. The reasoning for the sharp shift in Fed rhetoric between December and January remains elusive. To reconcile an unchanged baseline economic outlook with its dovish messages, the Fed pointed to increased external downside risks.

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06 February 2019 / Global

Hard currencies outlook (Part Two)

In Conversation: Hard currencies outlook (Part Two)

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05 February 2019 / Asia Pacific

May election muddies India's outlook

Conditions are becoming murky in the lead up to India's general election in May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity is falling, and the losses of his Bharatiya Janata Party in state assembly and other by-elections dim his prospects for a clear win. The government's drive to boost growth has shifted economic policies into an expansionary mode. Last October the RBI moved its policy stance to 'calibrated tightening', citing sustained inflation risks. The events since, especially after the resignation of Governor Urjit Patel, shift the bias towards easing.

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04 February 2019 / Global

Hard currencies outlook (Part One)

In Conversation: Hard currencies outlook (Part One)

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