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Monetary Policy

07 March 2019 / Europe

Gender Balance Index launch

Gender Balance Index marking International Women’s Day

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14 November 2018 / Asia Pacific

Third OMFIF-JCER Policy Meeting

Third OMFIF-JCER Policy Meeting

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23 October 2018 / Europe

ECB capital key dilemma on reinvestment

The ECB faces potential charges of discrimination from Italy over maintaining its quantitative easing programme next year. Technical changes in allocating reinvestment of national central banks' maturing bond holdings in 2019 could exacerbate Italy's dispute with the European Commission over Rome's budgetary policy. Potential squabbles centre on the quinquennial recalculation of the ECB's 'capital key', which reflect long-running differences over different countries' benefits and disadvantages from euro membership.

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16 October 2018 / Europe

Merkel setback hurts EMU reform chances

The stunning setback for Germany's coalition parties in Sunday's Bavarian state elections will toughen Chancellor Angela Merkel's already difficult task of winning consensus for reforming and strengthening the structure of economic and monetary union. The Bavarian debacle will narrow further Merkel's room for policy manoeuvre both over budgetary squabbles with Italy and over the wider issue of strengthening the euro area's institutional architecture to help withstand the next financial crisis.

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12 October 2018 / China

No 'competitive devaluation' in China

When the Trump administration asserts that China steals intellectual property, violates foreign investor rights, engages in wrongful wholesale subsidisation of the economy, and raises questions about industrial policy pursuant to 'Made in China 2025', it stands on solid ground. Its assertions about 'competitive devaluations' by China, however, do not stand up to scrutiny. The renminbi's decline primarily reflects a strong US economy as well as contrasting cyclical developments in China, notwithstanding the efforts of Beijing's officialdom to curb pressures on the currency.

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10 October 2018 / Europe

ECB faces QE dilemma

While Italy continues to dominate the headlines, the European Central Bank is more interested in the big picture: the continuing economic recovery, building inflationary pressure, the end of quantitative easing and guiding interest rate expectations. As its bond-buying programme starts to wind down, the ECB is increasingly relying on the flow from QE reinvestments to make its presence felt in the markets. The uneven nature of its monthly reinvestments is one issue the ECB must consider when adjusting its policies for next year.

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09 October 2018 / Asia Pacific

Shaping the future of central banks

OMFIF-Bank of Thailand meeting

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03 October 2018 / North America

US economic outlook

Lecture with Charles Evans, president and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

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02 October 2018 / Global

Central banks face 'hot breath' over QE

Political constraints on the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank restarting large-scale asset purchases to combat a future recession will be much greater than after the 2008 financial crisis. Interest rates are unlikely to rise high enough during the current tightening cycle to quell any downturn simply with rate cuts. Experts recognise that QE will be part of central banks' toolkit for dealing with the next dip. With the 'hot breath' of politicians 'on central bankers' shoulders', leeway for purely technocratic solutions is constrained.

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