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Analysis

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Geopolitics

14 December 2018 / UK

Power vacuum points to no-deal Brexit

With her back to the wall, Theresa May seems to have forged a strategy to achieve her goals, however lofty or improbable they seem. If the opposition parties in parliament and those Conservatives who voted against her in Wednesday's leadership challenge stand firm against May, the prime minister's deal with Europe will fail. A power vacuum seems likely to arise in London. Unless May miraculously reimposes her will over the Conservative party and convinces parliament of the value of her deal, Britain will drift towards a no-deal Brexit.

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11 December 2018 / UK

Brexit tumult recalls Black Wednesday

The UK is in a fast-changing situation with much at stake. The degree of uncertainty over the future path of government policy on Brexit calls to mind the days running up to Black Wednesday in September 1992, when the UK attempted to raise base rates twice to defend the pound before crashing out of the European exchange rate mechanism. Prime Minister Theresa May has outlined three options for the UK as it looks to exit the European Union: her deal, no deal, or no Brexit at all. Though none seems probable, one of them must happen.

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10 December 2018 / Global

The retreat of globalisation

Political risk series: The retreat of globalisation

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05 December 2018 / Europe

Preserving Britain's place in the EEA

The UK intends to remain a member of the European Economic Area on the same grounds as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. There will be a deep free trade agreement in place on 30 March 2019 and no need to take recourse to World Trade Organisation tariff schedules for intra-EEA trade. Continuing in the EEA on this basis could unite many different viewpoints in parliament because, first, the UK would maintain significant control, and second, this approach leaves longer-term trade policy issues to be settled later.

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04 December 2018 / Europe

Political risk series: The Brexit deal

Political risk series: The Brexit deal, scenarios after the parliamentary vote

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28 November 2018 / Europe

May deal faces near-impossible hurdles

Prime Minister Theresa May would almost certainly try to counter a rejection of her Brexit deal in the UK parliament by returning with an amended version to avoid the more dramatic alternatives. To stand any chance of success, an amended deal must overcome two hurdles. First, May must keep her cabinet united – which seems unlikely to happen. Second, the EU must be forthcoming in offering something meaningful to appease the UK parliament and Leave MPs – again, what that could amount to is almost impossible to determine.

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26 November 2018 / Asia Pacific

Interference and independence at RBI

Political risk series:Interference and independence at the Reserve Bank of India

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25 November 2018 / North America,Latin America Caribbean,Middle East,Global

In conversation: Caroline Atkinson

In conversation: Caroline Atkinson

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20 November 2018 / Global

Opening for US-China renminbi action

Since early April, the renminbi has fallen 10% against the dollar, largely reflecting dollar strength. The causes lie in the cyclical and monetary policy divergence between the US and China. However, there is an alignment of interests. Both want to pursue their domestic economic agendas without the complications of a falling renminbi. This could create an opening for unexpected co-operative action by the US Treasury and the People's Bank of China – a joint foreign exchange intervention operation to strengthen the renminbi.

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