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Geopolitics

12 June 2019 / Asia Pacific,North America,Latin America Caribbean,Middle East,Africa,Europe,Global

Global Public Investor launch 2019

Launch of the 6th annual Global Public Investor: sustainability panel discussion

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20 February 2019 / Global

Keeping the peace in US-China talks

Ongoing US-China trade talks are a skirmish in what could become a protracted struggle. Not a trade war, but a wider contest – hopefully economic, not military – to realign global economic interests. One way to keep that contest peaceful is to recognise it is a long-term project that could benefit both sides if they keep communication channels open. It seems negotiators will reach some sort of agreement on the discussion of punitive tariffs to defuse that issue in the short term. Leaks about possible concessions are seeping out.

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25 January 2019 / Asia Pacific,North America,Europe

Trade, China and Brexit: Global Economic Challenges for 2019

A high-level panel discussion on global economic challenges for 2019.

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22 January 2019 / Global

Proper perspective on emerging risks

You can hear the bearishness in everyone's voices. They fear a market swoon in a world of unstable politics. Risks are mounting, as indicated by recent data signalling slight economic contractions in Germany and Japan. There is plenty of room for unpleasant surprises, especially from higher debt servicing costs and continuing pressures on some emerging markets. But it is important to keep these risks in proper perspective against a global economy that is slowing, but still very strong, and political tensions that are distracting, but unlikely to trigger recession.

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17 January 2019 / Europe

Swiss are collateral victim of Brexit

Amid all the Brexit excitement in London, no one seems to have noticed that Switzerland is as much embroiled in a row with the EU as is the UK. Switzerland has been engaged in on-off negotiations with Brussels since 1992. The EU cannot offer a special deal that allows Switzerland access to the single market but without respecting its rules, as this would set a precedent for the UK. Equally, the Swiss government and its members of parliament find it hard to agree a deal with Brussels that risks being repudiated in a referendum.

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11 January 2019 / Europe

Back to Brussels on Brexit

Prime Minister Theresa May, facing a crucial House of Commons vote on 15 January on Britain's EU exit, is running down the clock until members of parliament feel they have no option but to back the government's deal over departure on 29 March. But the government will not be able to get May's deal through parliament and so will have to go back to Brussels, not just once, but maybe several times. If the EU refuses to budge, the automatic legal position is that the UK will leave on 29 March, even if there is no deal and stalemate in parliament.

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09 January 2019 / US

Back to pre-1914 Fortress America

When Trump was elected in November 2016, I said he would be a unilateralist. In that spirit, he has redefined the aims of US foreign policy. We are back to pre-1914 'Fortress America'. The US entered the first world war only because of the German U-boat sinking of the RMS Lusitania. It entered the second only after the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Trump wants to confine US defence activity strictly to defend national interests. He no longer wishes to run the world, and has ended the doctrine of the US as global policeman codified by President John Kennedy in 1961.

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