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Emerging Markets

12 June 2019 / Asia Pacific,North America,Latin America Caribbean,Middle East,Africa,Europe,Global

Global Public Investor launch 2019

Launch of the 6th annual Global Public Investor: sustainability panel discussion

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21 February 2019 / Asia Pacific

Financing emerging Asia infrastructure

Despite much discussion and effort, private capital is still not playing the role it can or should in financing infrastructure projects in emerging Asia. Increased geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in terms of sources of infrastructure financing, as well as broader trade and political partnerships, are accentuating market sensitivity in the region. In the light of such uncertainty, multilateral institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can bolster public investment, given their ability to lend counter-cyclically and take longer-term exposures.

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12 February 2019 / Latin America

Venezuela's death spiral

Under President Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has fallen ever further into an economic death spiral. Evidence of this comes from Venezuela's inflation rate, which is running at 139,839% per year. At the same time that Washington declared economic war, Caracas announced it was going to devalue the bolívar in an attempt to allow its value to align with that in the black market. The official bolívar-dollar exchange rate plunged and shot past the black market rate. This realignment carries significant implications.

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25 January 2019 / Asia Pacific,North America,Europe

Trade, China and Brexit: Global Economic Challenges for 2019

A high-level panel discussion on global economic challenges for 2019.

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24 January 2019 / Global

Emerging market trials persist

Last year's thrashing in all emerging market investment classes, with debt, equity and currencies in simultaneous decline for the first time in a decade, prompted reconsideration of allocation rationale into the next decade. Crises in Argentina and Turkey in 2018 were in part a replay of 2013 Federal Reserve-induced 'taper tantrum', as retail foreign investors sold indiscriminately. Contagion may yet spread, but for now index performance will continue to be subdued without the spectre of uncontrolled crashes.

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03 December 2018 / Africa

Africa must accelerate market reforms

For Africa to grow, it needs a broad, all-inclusive financial market that facilitates investment. Policy-makers must pursue accelerated reforms to the continent's financial markets, principally because these can be used to raise capital to meet the region's significant funding needs, particularly for infrastructure projects. Africa's transformation requires significant resources. For example, to achieve universal energy access by 2025, as much as $55bn annually must be raised in domestic and international capital.

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16 November 2018 / China

Renminbi's global reserve share rising

Asset class diversification continues to be a key theme for central bank foreign exchange reserves managers. Despite a weaker renminbi/dollar rate this year, the Chinese currency has increased its share in global reserves, according to IMF data. The latest report shows a jump in renminbi holdings of around $50bn in the second quarter of 2018. Less than a decade after the launch of the renminbi internationalisation initiative, we estimate that more than 60 central banks have renminbi in their reserves. But allocations are still relatively small.

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14 November 2018 / Africa

Zambia's infrastructure habit

Infrastructure development in Zambia is a powerful tool for swaying public opinion. However, despite its importance to economic growth, it is contentious. Past projects are associated with high costs, opaque tender processes and rising public debt. The tension between development and debt dominates, and the two issues often lead back to China and its funding of Zambian infrastructure projects. In a nation that emerged out of colonialism, fears of its reoccurrence in a different form are well founded.

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30 October 2018 / Europe

Ukraine-IMF relationship not a success

The IMF's relationship with Ukraine has always been among its most high profile and difficult interactions. The US and Europe have consistently encouraged the IMF to remain engaged in Ukraine, viewing this as a means of laying a foundation for greater market orientation, integrating Ukraine with the West and diminishing Russia's regional influence. Though the Fund has spared no effort, the relationship cannot be viewed as a success, and the economic promise of the 2014 revolution is not yet close to fruition.

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