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Analysis

Advisory Board believes Clinton will win

by OMFIF staff

As the US presidential primaries enter the final furlong, Hillary Clinton is leading the race to receive the Democrat nomination, after victories in four out of the last six states. However Bernie Sanders, the left-wing Democratic contender, has pledged to ‘fight on’ to the end of the primaries after winning in Rhode Island and Indiana.

From being viewed as an outside contender before the primaries, Donald Trump appears the only contender for the Republican nomination, following the withdrawal of his closest contender Ted Cruz on 3 May.

We put three questions to members of the Advisory Board in April, offering a choice of the then four leading contenders – Clinton, Trump, Sanders and Cruz. The questions were: 1) Who do you think will be the next US president? 2) Which candidate would be most likely to promote sustainable US economic growth in the next two to three years? 3) Which candidate would be most likely to bring about rapprochement with Russia?

Clinton was the runaway winner, with 87% of respondents believing she would win the election. Clinton was regarded as most likely to produce sustainable growth, gaining a 79% support rating, and was also thought most likely to improve relations with Russia (69% of the vote). The sole minor compensation for Trump was that 18% of respondents stated that he was most likely to bring about a rapprochement with Moscow. 

Clinton favourite to become president

Sanders and Cruz not seen as serious contenders

Poll 1 (1)

Sustainable growth prospects better under Clinton

Trump lags far behind in economics ratings

Poll 2

Clinton would be best for relations with Russia

Trump and Sanders seen as also-rans in Moscow ties

Poll 3

 ‘Presidents have relatively little influence on the evolution of economic growth which instead depends on the internal dynamics of the economy itself and on external factors. That said, I believe Clinton is the least likely to make a mess than the others.’

- Hans Genberg, the Seacen Centre, Kuala Lumpur

‘The answer to all of the three questions is of course Clinton. Not because she is such a fantastic candidate but because the others are much worse – for America much as for Europe.’

- Michael Stürmer, Die Welt, and a former adviser to Chancellor Helmut Kohl

‘There needs to be no rapprochement between the US and Russia. We don’t need their friendship, we need their good behaviour. The best person to defend western interests vis-à-vis Russia is naturally Clinton.’

- John Kornblum, Noerr LLP, and former US Ambassador to Germany

‘If the choice is confined to the four names, Clinton has fewer chances of being defeated than Trump, Cruz or Sanders. There is however a significant chance that it will be none of the above, with an open convention on the Republican side, followed a few days later by a difficult one (just possibly also an open one) on the Democratic side.’

- Francois Heisbourg, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique

‘My answer is Hillary Clinton to each of your questions. She is the most substantively grounded of all the candidates. While I think the question in respect of Russia may prove more challenging, the measure of her success will depend on the quality of the advisers, including the secretaries of state, commerce and national security.’

- Marsha Vande Berg, Stanford University


These statements were received as part of the April poll, conducted
12-22 April. Responses were received from 39 Advisory Board members.

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