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Analysis

Remain retakes poll lead

The Remain camp is retaking its lead in the final days of the UK EU referendum, boosting financial market indicators, according to the OMFIF Poll of Polls.

OMFIF Poll Of Polls (4)

The Remain camp is retaking its lead in the final days of the UK EU referendum after dropping behind Leave last week to a low of 42.8% to 48.6% (see first chart). The OMFIF Poll of Polls tracker uses a rolling average of the most recent polls to calculate the score (for a longer run data set see final chart below). The latest poll shows an increase in undecided voters at the expense of Leave, while Remain has increased to 44.5%, giving it an almost two point lead. If, as is expected, the majority of undecided voters move towards Remain in the final days of the campaign, this should see the lead widen.

OMFIF Poll Of Polls (1)

The FTSE 100 index has regained some of the losses it sustained last week when Brexit surged ahead, falling from 6,301.5 to 5,923.5 before recovering to 6,216.6 on 20 June (see above chart). Sterling has recovered its losses against the dollar last week when it fell from 1.45 to 1.41. On the date of the latest poll (18 June) sterling was over 1.43 and is at 1.46 as of 20 June.

OMFIF Poll Of Polls (2)

Note:

Poll data based on ICM, YouGov, ORB, Survation, Ipsos MORI, TNS, BMG Research and Opinium polls, taking averages from all polls on each recorded day, excluding polls with only a leave/remain option (some days have more than one poll, other days have only one. Not all days have polls). A two point average is calculated by taking the average of the latest two polls.