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Analysis

Political risk on display

3 December 2016, London

Omfif Focus 2016 Review Update Size

The OMFIF advisory board has proved an accurate guide to a turbulent year in international affairs. In fast-moving developments – the recovery in emerging market currencies and oil prices, the rollercoaster debate on US interest rates and political vicissitudes in the UK, the US and Germany – the January 2016 advisory board predictions provided a prescient indication of 12 months of fluctuations.

The OMFIF Review of 2016, 'Political risk on display', contained in the December Bulletin, evaluates 20 forecasts, of which eight receive five stars for accuracy; four get four stars; seven, three stars; and one, two stars. The accounts in the special OMFIF Focus edition place special emphasis on currency changes, with OMFIF designating 2016 the ‘Year of the Multicurrency System’ and the world passing a landmark with the renminbi’s 1 October entry to the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right.

Among the predictions were:

  • Marsha Vande Berg - the Fed funds rate would not move up beyond 1% this year
  • Nick Butler - oil price would rally to $45 to $50 a barrel
  • Denis MacShane - Britain would vote to leave the European Union
  • John Kornblum - no rapprochement between Russia and the US over Syria
  • Gary Smith - emerging market currencies would recover
  • Michael Stürmer - Angela Merkel to continue as German chancellor
  • Peter Bruce - South African President Jacob Zuma would ‘just survive'
  • Desmond Lachman - Christine Lagarde would stay IMF managing director
  • Darrell Delamaide - victory for Hillary Clinton ‘far from assured’
  • John Plender and John Adams - renminbi would fall on currency markets

This Focus Report featured in The December Bulletin, which is available to OMFIF members, and to non-members on a subscription basis. To subscribe please email membership@omfif.org

The 2017 ‘Year Ahead’ predictions will be released in the January 2017 edition of the OMFIF Bulletin.