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Analysis

How Trump could surprise on infrastructure

OMFIF Report – Press Release

20 July 2016

London

Political Economy Of Trump (cover Page) (1)

Meghnad Desai, chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board, explores the possible outcomes of Donald Trump’s unconventional economic thinking. In a major report – 'The political economy of Donald Trump' – on the Republican presidential candidate’s policies, Desai asks whether Trump could surprise observers making dire predictions about his potential move into the White House.

With fiscal policy paralysis in the G7 and G20 international forums, and with monetary policy reaching the limits of its stimulus power, a bold, unorthodox economic policy could remove obstacles to US growth, Desai argues. Capital spending on infrastructure on a par with that pursued by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950s could increase job opportunities precisely for those workers who need it.

However, much will depend on a compliant Congress. ‘If Trump wins in November, those who fear his actions should pray for four years of legislative gridlock.’

The report includes contributions from Desmond Lachman, Marsha Vande Berg, Reginald Dale, and Eugene Zhuchenko. Lachman and Vande Berg sound a cautious note. They warn that ‘the last thing the global economy needs is an inconsistent and inexperienced pair of hands heightening investor uncertainty’, and that a Trump presidency could 'put at risk America’s role as leader of the global economy.'

Lord (Meghnad) Desai is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Desmond Lachman is a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department.

Marsha Vande Berg is Distinguished Career Fellow at Stanford University.

Reginald Dale is Director of the Transatlantic Media Network and a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Eugene Zhuchenko is Executive Director of the Long-Term Infrastructure Investors Association.

To request a PDF of this report, please email editorial@omfif.org, stating your name and institution.

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