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Analysis

German industrial production

by Gabriel Stein

Tue 8 Jul 2014

German industrial production (1) Enlarge Chart loading Image

What the chart shows: The chart shows the level of German industrial production as an index with the average for 2010=100

Why the chart is important: There is a disappointing pattern to recent German data. If the numbers weaken, they weaken slightly more than expected; if they strengthen, they strengthen slightly less than expected. So, for instance, markets expected German industrial production to follow the 0.2% rise in April with another 0.1% rise in May.

In the event, April was revised to -0.3% and May saw another 1.8% fall. On a twelve-month basis, industrial output is still up; but the entire gain over the winter has now disappeared. Absent a 1% rise in energy output in May, the fall would have been even larger. The data clearly confirm that activity in the EA’s biggest economy is losing momentum at a time when the rest of the single currency area has still not gained very much traction. This bodes ill for the rest of 2014.

Chart and comments provided by Oxford Economics www.oxfordeconomics.com