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Why it is important to have female faculty

by Galina Hale in San Francisco, and Tali Regev in Herzliya | Fri 8 Mar 2019

The distribution of women across academic fields is uneven, and this segregation appears persistent. Economics is no exception. Despite the increase in the number of female economists over the last few decades, women in economics continue to be underrepresented.

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Investment Clock – A pivotal October

by Trevor Greetham in London | Wed 17 Oct 2018

Stock market volatility tends to reach its peak in October, underlined by famous crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Cross-currents in the world economy make this October particularly pivotal, especially in the light of the tug of war between good news out of the US and bad news out of China.

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Investment Clock: Threat of stagflation

by Trevor Greetham in London | Mon 9 Jul 2018

Global growth and inflation figures, in addition to rising commodity prices and interest rates, point to the risk of staglation over the summer months. The geopolitical backdrop, and the threat of a US-China trade war, also has a whiff of stagflation about it.

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Investment Clock: Bull market has further to run

by Trevor Greetham in London | Fri 19 Jan 2018

The world is experiencing one of the longest economic expansions since records began and there's no end in sight, with muted inflationary pressures keeping interest rates low. Stock markets like this not too hot, not too cold 'Goldilocks' backdrop.

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Global infrastructure finance falls

by Otaviano Canuto in Washington | Tue 21 Nov 2017

Global infrastructure financing has fallen short of its potential.Private sector investment and institutional investor capital are often raised as possible solutions for filling the infrastructure funding gap.

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Regulatory freedom brings prosperity

by Steve Hanke in Baltimore | Wed 8 Nov 2017

Productivity and economic growth continue to disappoint in most countries. Although analysts show a great deal of concern for the so-called 'productivity puzzle', little attention is paid to the real solution: freer markets and increased competition.

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Investment Clock: Bull markets don't die of old age

by Trevor Greetham in London | Fri 29 Sep 2017

Stock prices have been rising for more than eight years, but bull markets don't die of old age. There are few signs of the excessive growth, valuation or financial leverage that usually signal the approach of a bear market. With interest rates below inflation, it is unsurprising that money continues to flow into markets.

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Euro area strength and the future of QE

by Danae Kyriakopoulou in London | Fri 1 Sep 2017

The ECB's QE programme has played an important role in supporting economic recovery in the euro area. GDP across the currency union grew by 2.2% year-on-year according to the latest data for the second quarter of 2017, unemployment is down, and the threat of deflation has receded.

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ECB under-purchasing German bonds

by Ben Robinson in London | Fri 11 Aug 2017

Latest figures for July show that, for the fourth month in a row, German bonds bought under the European Central Bank's public sector purchase programme fell short of the amount allowed by the 'capital key' allocation.

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EU nationals and the British labour force

by Danae Kyriakopoulou in London | Fri 14 Jul 2017

The rights of EU nationals living in the UK has been one of the most controversial issues since Britain voted to exit the bloc in June 2016. Around 3m EU nationals live in the UK, comprising 7.3% of total UK employment.

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Fed raises rates but turns dovish

by Darrell Delamaide in Washington | Thu 29 Jun 2017

Fed policy-makers see the slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter as 'transitory', and will be watching to see if the downturn in inflation is temporary too. Further dovish inflation data for May have added to the sense of caution.

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Gold market opportunity cost is worth paying

by Gautam Sashittal in Dubai | Wed 7 Jun 2017

Two years ago some commentators predicted that the price of gold could fall below $1,000 an ounce and that the market was heading for a downward spiral. Today the precious metal costs around $1,250 an ounce, and its price has been on an upward trend since the start of the year.

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GCC deficits likely to persist through to 2021

by Bhavin Patel in London | Fri 26 May 2017

In 2013 oil export revenues exceeded $1.2tn for GCC economies. The IMF projects these revenues will fall to $720bn by the end of 2017. Since oil revenues make up on average more than 45% of tax revenues, the resulting budget deficits in GCC countries are unlikely to recover in the near term.

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Investment Clock: Beware summer shocks for equities

by Trevor Greetham in London | Tue 23 May 2017

The Investment Clock is in the 'overheat' phase of the business cycle after the strongest surge in global growth and inflation since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock markets often move sideways over the summer and volatility tends to rise. Negative surprises could come from doubts about Trump's ability to implement planned stimulus measures.

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Riksbank leaves rates unchanged despite rising inflation

by OMFIF and National Bank of Poland analysis | Tue 16 May 2017

After a long period of deflation, Sweden's inflation rate seems to be heading towards the Riksbank's target of 2%. However, having reached 1.8% in February, the consumer price index slipped to 1.3% the following month.

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Switzerland's foreign reserves rise to record levels

by OMFIF and National Bank of Poland | Wed 10 May 2017

After falling in January, the Swiss National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have risen sharply, pointing to its increased presence in the foreign exchange market. The foreign reserves (excluding gold) reached Chf688.9bn ($693bn) in March, up from Chf674.0bn in February.

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Public investment after Eisenhower

by OMFIF Analysis | Wed 3 May 2017

When it comes to infrastructure investment, President Donald Trump would do well to follow the example of Dwight Eisenhower. Gross public investment peaked at around 7% per annum during the Eisenhower administration, a level not seen since.

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Asean's connectivity success

by National University of Singapore authors | Thu 27 Apr 2017

50 years after its inception, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations continues to pursue its goal of strong intra-regional connectivity. Asean states are achieving this aim through enhanced trade networks, market and regulatory integration and sustainable infrastructure investment.

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Japan’s new yield curve target

by OMFIF and National Bank of Poland analysis | Wed 19 Apr 2017

After implementing another innovation on yield curve targeting in September, the Bank of Japan published further details on its purchase of Japanese government bonds. As a result, the Bank has started to disclose data regarding the volume and type of bonds to be purchased, frequency, and a method for auctions.

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March inflation lowers prospects for ECB tapering

by OMFIF and National Bank of Poland analysis | Tue 4 Apr 2017

The central banks of advanced economies responded to the financial crisis by expanding their balance sheets at an extraordinary pace. Nine years on, some are assessing the risks and benefits of exiting such policies and reversing this balance sheet expansion.

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Gender imbalance in central banks

by OMFIF Analysis | Thu 9 Mar 2017

The world of central banking is highly unbalanced when it comes to gender, and the disequilibrium seems to be getting worse. OMFIF Gender Balance Index tracks the balance between men and women in senior positions of central banks around the world. Gender balance is especially weak for the post of central bank governors – only 6.5% of central banks are headed by women.

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Investment Clock: Loose monetary policy fuels growth

by Trevor Greetham | Wed 8 Feb 2017

The Investment Clock has been in the 'overheat' phase of the business cycle since July 2016. Things have heated up recently in what could potentially be the strongest surge in nominal growth since the financial crisis. Hopes of loose US fiscal policy and deregulation under Trump could add fuel to the fire.

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Investment clock: Trump vote could strengthen overheat phase

by Trevor Greetham | Fri 2 Dec 2016

The markets had another surprise in November with the election of Donald Trump. His victory has been taken badly by the bond market as it marks a transition from monetary ease towards fiscal ease. This is a positive backdrop for stocks.

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Investment clock: Brexit boosts multi-asset returns

by Trevor Greetham | Mon 19 Sep 2016

Multi-asset performance has been very strong since the UK referendum, rewarding sterling-based investors with exceptional returns for the year to date. Bonds surged globally, while stocks benefited from an increase in the value of overseas earnings in sterling terms.

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'Investment clock' shows gains for equities

by Trevor Greetham | Tue 14 Jun 2016

The pick-up in global growth against a low inflation backdrop puts the investment cycle still in an equity-friendly ‘recovery’ phase, according to the Investment Clock, a model-based framework linking asset returns to different phases of the global business cycle.

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UK's external financing needs

by Ben Robinson | Fri 3 Jun 2016

One way of measuring economic vulnerability, says Moritz Kraemer of S&P Global in an OMFIF Commentary, is to analyse an economy’s annual gross external financing needs. The UK score is 755%, the highest among all 131 sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings.

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ECB voting rotation

by Ben Robinson | Fri 19 Feb 2016

At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

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Cost cuts and market share

by Ben Robinson | Thu 28 Jan 2016

Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

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Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

by David Marsh and Ben Robinson | Mon 7 Dec 2015

The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

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Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

by William Baunton | Wed 8 Jul 2015

Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

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History repeating itself

by William Baunton | Thu 2 Jul 2015

Bear market grips Chinese stocks with echoes of 2007

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The mystery behind poor first quarter growth in the US

by William Baunton | Wed 24 Jun 2015

Since 2010 the US has achieved steady growth of around 2% per annum despite poor, and arguably inconsistent, first quarter figures

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Greece's difficult road ahead

by William Baunton | Thu 9 Apr 2015

If Greece were to fail to make payments to the IMF, it would become the first advanced economy in history to default on an IMF loan

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The UK's net international investment position

by William Baunton | Fri 27 Mar 2015

The Bank of England's estimates paint a different picture

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In defence of the Swiss National Bank

by David Marsh and William Baunton | Thu 12 Feb 2015

The Swiss National Bank’s peg of SFr1.20 to the euro shuddered to an abrupt halt last month, causing financial market waves. In fact, the bank’s decision was correct, if not overdue.

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Net foreign assets and liabilities 1970-2013

by William Baunton | Fri 21 Nov 2014

Winners and losers in debtor-creditor stakes

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Accessing the Chinese domestic growth story

by William Baunton | Mon 10 Nov 2014

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to open 17 November

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Performance of public pension funds 2004-13

by William Baunton | Mon 6 Oct 2014

Comparing the performance of GPIF with three public pension fund peers from around the world.

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Global public investors continuing to increase real estate holdings

by William Baunton | Tue 30 Sep 2014

Market value of real estate investments of Första AP-fonden (AP1), Future Fund (FF) and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) from 2008-13.

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Allocation of and return on assets of Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP

by William Baunton | Mon 22 Sep 2014

Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP is the largest global public investor in the Netherlands and the 3rd largest pension fund in the world.

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Deflation in Japan

by William Baunton | Wed 17 Sep 2014

The relationship between deflation and demographic changes in Japan.

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Asset allocation at NBIM

by William Baunton | Mon 8 Sep 2014

Asset allocation at the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is changing tack, switching from fixed income to equities.

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World central bank reserves by region

by William Baunton | Mon 1 Sep 2014

The rise of central banks’ reserves (including gold).

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Empire State survey of manufacturing

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 18 Aug 2014

US manufacturing outlook remains decent

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Italian trend output growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 11 Aug 2014

Recessions are normal for Italy.

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Chinese interbank rates

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 4 Aug 2014

People's Bank of China (PBoC) gives with one hand, takes with the other.

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German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 28 Jul 2014

German business confidence signals weaker activity – or sanction fears.

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Excess reserves with the ECB

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 14 Jul 2014

ECB negative rates all but eliminates banks’ excess reserves

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German industrial production

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 8 Jul 2014

German outlook weakens further

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Italian inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 30 Jun 2014

Italy slides towards deflation

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Flash PMIs

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 23 Jun 2014

Euro area PMIs weaken, East Asian strengthen

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Euro area inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 17 Jun 2014

Full May inflation numbers little cheer for Draghi.

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US corporate liquidity

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Jun 2014

US corporate liquidity sends muted share price signals

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US large time deposits

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 19 May 2014

The buoyancy of US large time deposits should support equity prices

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German and French export growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 12 May 2014

12 May 2014: Strong euro hurts both, but France the most

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MFI reserves with ECB

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 6 May 2014

6 May 2014: Impact of negative interest rates in euro area would be small

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Real policy interest rates

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 14 Apr 2014

14 Apr 2014: ‘Neutral’ rates must be defined in real terms.

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US non-farm payrolls

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 7 Apr 2014

7 Apr 2014: March numbers show US strength – and meaninglessness of data.

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Japanese inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 31 Mar 2014

31 Mar 2014: 12 month inflation still rising, but monthly numbers are bad.

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US single-family home permits

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 24 Mar 2014

24 Mar 2014: Single family home-lag US housing recovery.

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Abenomics after one year

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 10 Mar 2014

10 Mar 2014: The latest GDP data bode ill for the success of Abenomics.

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The fall of the renminbi

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 3 Mar 2014

3 Mar 2014: The recent fall of the renminbi is at least partly due to the attempts by the Chinese authorities to deter speculators; but also to likely imminent reform.

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German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 25 Feb 2014

25 Feb 2014: German business confidence continues to rise.

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Finnish productivity growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 17 Feb 2014

17 Feb 2014: Finland needs to boost productivity growth.

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US consumer credit growth – steady as she goes

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 10 Feb 2014

10 Feb 2014: US consumer credit growth jumped in December, deflecting concerns about a slowdown.

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Euro area inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 3 Feb 2014

3 Feb 2014: Euro area inflation continues to slow.

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UK and US unemployment

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 27 Jan 2014

27 Jan 2014: Unemployment in both the US and the UK has fallen faster than their respective central banks expected.

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Bank reserves

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 20 Jan 2014

20 Jan 2014: Banks’ reserves with central banks have shot up as a result of QE - this is a non-issue.

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US non-farm payrolls

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 13 Jan 2014

13 Jan 2014: Weak December data should not change the Fed’s mind.

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US manufacturing survey strong

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 6 Jan 2014

6 Jan 2014: Latest ISM survey data point to industrial production expansion accelerating.

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UK unemployment

by Gabriel Stein | Thu 2 Jan 2014

2 Jan 2014: UK unemployment continues to fall faster than expected by the Bank of England.

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US mortgage equity withdrawal

by Gabriel Stein | Thu 19 Dec 2013

19 Dec 2013: US mortgage equity withdrawal has picked up – but the scope for more isn’t there.

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US household debt relative to disposable income fell again in Q3

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Dec 2013

10 Dec 2013: Gabriel Stein explains that the ratio of US household debt to gross domestic product has risen for the first time in four years.

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The Australian dollar

by Gabriel Stein | Wed 4 Dec 2013

4 Dec 2013: Gabriel Stein describes how the central banks recent renewed interest in exchange rates have affected the Australian dollar exchange rate against the US dollar.

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German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 26 Nov 2013

26 Nov 2013: German business confidence continues to rise

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Euro area car sales moving sideways

by | Mon 23 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein analyses the registration of new cars, one of the key indicators of household demand, and shows that the economic bottom of the euro area has been reached.

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Strong rise in leading OECD indicator indices for euro area countries - except Germany

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 16 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines the leading OECD indicator indices for the euro area and its largest economies.

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US banks’ falling holdings of risk assets could mean trouble

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines US central bank policy and its effect on the economy.

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Japanese inflation at a five-year high

by ssasd | Mon 2 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines the Japanese Consumer Price Index and how the government will succeed in achieving its inflationary goals.

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