[Skip to Content]

Register to receive the weekly OMFIF Commentary, on the stories behind global economic and financial news.

* Required Fields

Member Area Login

Forgotten Password?

Forgotten password

Analysis

OMFIF Chart

Investment Clock: Loose monetary policy fuels growth

by Trevor Greetham | Wed 8 Feb 2017

The Investment Clock has been in the 'overheat' phase of the business cycle since July 2016. Things have heated up recently in what could potentially be the strongest surge in nominal growth since the financial crisis. Hopes of loose US fiscal policy and deregulation under Trump could add fuel to the fire.

view full

Investment clock: Trump vote could strengthen overheat phase

by Trevor Greetham | Fri 2 Dec 2016

The markets had another surprise in November with the election of Donald Trump. His victory has been taken badly by the bond market as it marks a transition from monetary ease towards fiscal ease. This is a positive backdrop for stocks.

view full

Investment clock: Brexit boosts multi-asset returns

by Trevor Greetham | Mon 19 Sep 2016

Multi-asset performance has been very strong since the UK referendum, rewarding sterling-based investors with exceptional returns for the year to date. Bonds surged globally, while stocks benefited from an increase in the value of overseas earnings in sterling terms.

view full

'Investment clock' shows gains for equities

by Trevor Greetham | Tue 14 Jun 2016

The pick-up in global growth against a low inflation backdrop puts the investment cycle still in an equity-friendly ‘recovery’ phase, according to the Investment Clock, a model-based framework linking asset returns to different phases of the global business cycle.

view full

UK's external financing needs

by Ben Robinson | Fri 3 Jun 2016

One way of measuring economic vulnerability, says Moritz Kraemer of S&P Global in an OMFIF Commentary, is to analyse an economy’s annual gross external financing needs. The UK score is 755%, the highest among all 131 sovereigns rated by S&P Global Ratings.

view full

ECB voting rotation

by Ben Robinson | Fri 19 Feb 2016

At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

view full

Cost cuts and market share

by Ben Robinson | Thu 28 Jan 2016

Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

view full

Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

by David Marsh and Ben Robinson | Mon 7 Dec 2015

The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

view full

Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

by William Baunton | Wed 8 Jul 2015

Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

view full

History repeating itself

by William Baunton | Thu 2 Jul 2015

Bear market grips Chinese stocks with echoes of 2007

view full

The mystery behind poor first quarter growth in the US

by William Baunton | Wed 24 Jun 2015

Since 2010 the US has achieved steady growth of around 2% per annum despite poor, and arguably inconsistent, first quarter figures

view full

Greece's difficult road ahead

by William Baunton | Thu 9 Apr 2015

If Greece were to fail to make payments to the IMF, it would become the first advanced economy in history to default on an IMF loan

view full

The UK's net international investment position

by William Baunton | Fri 27 Mar 2015

The Bank of England's estimates paint a different picture

view full

In defence of the Swiss National Bank

by David Marsh and William Baunton | Thu 12 Feb 2015

The Swiss National Bank’s peg of SFr1.20 to the euro shuddered to an abrupt halt last month, causing financial market waves. In fact, the bank’s decision was correct, if not overdue.

view full

Net foreign assets and liabilities 1970-2013

by William Baunton | Fri 21 Nov 2014

Winners and losers in debtor-creditor stakes

view full

Accessing the Chinese domestic growth story

by William Baunton | Mon 10 Nov 2014

Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect to open 17 November

view full

Performance of public pension funds 2004-13

by William Baunton | Mon 6 Oct 2014

Comparing the performance of GPIF with three public pension fund peers from around the world.

view full

Global public investors continuing to increase real estate holdings

by William Baunton | Tue 30 Sep 2014

Market value of real estate investments of Första AP-fonden (AP1), Future Fund (FF) and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) from 2008-13.

view full

Allocation of and return on assets of Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP

by William Baunton | Mon 22 Sep 2014

Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP is the largest global public investor in the Netherlands and the 3rd largest pension fund in the world.

view full

Deflation in Japan

by William Baunton | Wed 17 Sep 2014

The relationship between deflation and demographic changes in Japan.

view full

Asset allocation at NBIM

by William Baunton | Mon 8 Sep 2014

Asset allocation at the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is changing tack, switching from fixed income to equities.

view full

World central bank reserves by region

by William Baunton | Mon 1 Sep 2014

The rise of central banks’ reserves (including gold).

view full

Empire State survey of manufacturing

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 18 Aug 2014

US manufacturing outlook remains decent

view full

Italian trend output growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 11 Aug 2014

Recessions are normal for Italy.

view full

Chinese interbank rates

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 4 Aug 2014

People's Bank of China (PBoC) gives with one hand, takes with the other.

view full

German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 28 Jul 2014

German business confidence signals weaker activity – or sanction fears.

view full

Excess reserves with the ECB

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 14 Jul 2014

ECB negative rates all but eliminates banks’ excess reserves

view full

German industrial production

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 8 Jul 2014

German outlook weakens further

view full

Italian inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 30 Jun 2014

Italy slides towards deflation

view full

Flash PMIs

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 23 Jun 2014

Euro area PMIs weaken, East Asian strengthen

view full

Euro area inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 17 Jun 2014

Full May inflation numbers little cheer for Draghi.

view full

US corporate liquidity

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Jun 2014

US corporate liquidity sends muted share price signals

view full

US large time deposits

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 19 May 2014

The buoyancy of US large time deposits should support equity prices

view full

German and French export growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 12 May 2014

12 May 2014: Strong euro hurts both, but France the most

view full

MFI reserves with ECB

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 6 May 2014

6 May 2014: Impact of negative interest rates in euro area would be small

view full

Real policy interest rates

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 14 Apr 2014

14 Apr 2014: ‘Neutral’ rates must be defined in real terms.

view full

US non-farm payrolls

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 7 Apr 2014

7 Apr 2014: March numbers show US strength – and meaninglessness of data.

view full

Japanese inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 31 Mar 2014

31 Mar 2014: 12 month inflation still rising, but monthly numbers are bad.

view full

US single-family home permits

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 24 Mar 2014

24 Mar 2014: Single family home-lag US housing recovery.

view full

Abenomics after one year

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 10 Mar 2014

10 Mar 2014: The latest GDP data bode ill for the success of Abenomics.

view full

The fall of the renminbi

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 3 Mar 2014

3 Mar 2014: The recent fall of the renminbi is at least partly due to the attempts by the Chinese authorities to deter speculators; but also to likely imminent reform.

view full

German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 25 Feb 2014

25 Feb 2014: German business confidence continues to rise.

view full

Finnish productivity growth

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 17 Feb 2014

17 Feb 2014: Finland needs to boost productivity growth.

view full

US consumer credit growth – steady as she goes

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 10 Feb 2014

10 Feb 2014: US consumer credit growth jumped in December, deflecting concerns about a slowdown.

view full

Euro area inflation

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 3 Feb 2014

3 Feb 2014: Euro area inflation continues to slow.

view full

UK and US unemployment

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 27 Jan 2014

27 Jan 2014: Unemployment in both the US and the UK has fallen faster than their respective central banks expected.

view full

Bank reserves

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 20 Jan 2014

20 Jan 2014: Banks’ reserves with central banks have shot up as a result of QE - this is a non-issue.

view full

US non-farm payrolls

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 13 Jan 2014

13 Jan 2014: Weak December data should not change the Fed’s mind.

view full

US manufacturing survey strong

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 6 Jan 2014

6 Jan 2014: Latest ISM survey data point to industrial production expansion accelerating.

view full

UK unemployment

by Gabriel Stein | Thu 2 Jan 2014

2 Jan 2014: UK unemployment continues to fall faster than expected by the Bank of England.

view full

US mortgage equity withdrawal

by Gabriel Stein | Thu 19 Dec 2013

19 Dec 2013: US mortgage equity withdrawal has picked up – but the scope for more isn’t there.

view full

US household debt relative to disposable income fell again in Q3

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Dec 2013

10 Dec 2013: Gabriel Stein explains that the ratio of US household debt to gross domestic product has risen for the first time in four years.

view full

The Australian dollar

by Gabriel Stein | Wed 4 Dec 2013

4 Dec 2013: Gabriel Stein describes how the central banks recent renewed interest in exchange rates have affected the Australian dollar exchange rate against the US dollar.

view full

German Ifo business climate index

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 26 Nov 2013

26 Nov 2013: German business confidence continues to rise

view full

Euro area car sales moving sideways

by | Mon 23 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein analyses the registration of new cars, one of the key indicators of household demand, and shows that the economic bottom of the euro area has been reached.

view full

Strong rise in leading OECD indicator indices for euro area countries - except Germany

by Gabriel Stein | Mon 16 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines the leading OECD indicator indices for the euro area and its largest economies.

view full

US banks’ falling holdings of risk assets could mean trouble

by Gabriel Stein | Tue 10 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines US central bank policy and its effect on the economy.

view full

Japanese inflation at a five-year high

by ssasd | Mon 2 Sep 2013

Gabriel Stein examines the Japanese Consumer Price Index and how the government will succeed in achieving its inflationary goals.

view full