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Wed 26 Jun 2019 / Global

All eyes on G20 sidelines

In the second of a pair of articles about the forthcoming G20 meeting, a group of policy experts from around the world discuss how the Osaka summit presents 'a crucial opportunity to tone down the rhetoric, and to re-emphasise that an open international trading environment benefits all countries,' particularly in the face of not only US-China tensions, but those around the Gulf as well. 'All eyes will be on what happens outside the meeting,' with world leaders slated to convene for critical bilateral discussions.

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Tue 25 Jun 2019 / Global

G20 must adapt to new global reality

In anticipation of the 14th G20 summit on 28-29 June, to be hosted in Osaka by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, OMFIF US Chairman Mark Sobel asked a group of policy experts from around the world to answer questions about the efficacy and future of the G20. In the first of two articles, the group responded to this question posed by Sobel: 'Many say the G20 has become a humdrum, low key affair that is not accomplishing much and is failing the global economic and financial system. What do you think?'

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Thu 20 Jun 2019 / Europe

Bumpy ride for UK PM candidate

Britain is trying to resolve its problem over leaving the European Union through a further round of the Conservative party's 30-year civil war. The election of another short-lived leader will damage the UK irretrievably. Front-runner Boris Johnson polarises as much as he unites. It would not be the first time that a UK prime minister had a reputation for either unreliability, low capacity for sustained work, or inability to think strategically. But it would probably be the first time that a leader combined all three traits.

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Wed 19 Jun 2019 / North America

Fed may signal imminent rate cuts

Concerns about the implications of President Donald Trump's willingness to use trade tariffs in disputes mean downside risks to US growth are building. Faced with such uncertainty and the higher costs and weaker profit outlook it generates, many firms may act more cautiously. Any subsequent slowdown in investment and hiring could lead to lower consumer spending and raise the threat of an economic downturn. On Wednesday analysts can expect the Federal Reserve to signal that precautionary rate cuts are imminent.

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Tue 18 Jun 2019 / Latin America Caribbean

Bolsonaro's Brazil in public debt peril

Jair Bolsanoro's move into Brazil's presidential palace raised market hopes that he would revitalise the country's economy, build a political consensus for much-needed pension reform and place public finances on a more sustainable track. So far, he has failed to make much progress in these areas as he engaged in divisive politics and his administration became riven by internal squabbles. Brazil is vulnerable to a full-blown public debt crisis, which will have global consequences, if the government fails to devise a credible programme.

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Thu 13 Jun 2019 / Asia Pacific,Global

China writing new interbank rules

China's commercial banks have struggled in the international arena. They are the biggest in the world, but must abide by rules written over the past few decades by western banks, despite having operated correspondent accounts for many years and working as trusted partners in the global interbank market. Chinese banks' sense of unease about not setting the rules of the game has led to the establishment of many joint interbank associations with major emerging and partner economies around the world.

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Wed 12 Jun 2019 / Global

Trump tariffs threaten world economy

Donald Trump's hard-lin e stance on the China trade issue could lead to a slowing in the world's second largest economy. This is bound to have spillover effects on economies with which the country has strong trade links, and could contribute to global financial market instability. Seemingly oblivious to the lessons from the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the 2008 financial crisis, Trump appears to think that the US economy is insulated from the rest of the world economy and is immune from a global financial market meltdown.

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Tue 11 Jun 2019 / North America

Powell revives talk of 'Fed put'

The Federal Reserve's two-day Chicago conference at the start of June was supposed to be a quiet, semi-academic review of monetary policy strategy, without generating any market-moving news. But monetary policy-makers don't always get to pick their moments, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell moved markets with just a few words when he spoke at their early June gathering. His concession in Chicago revived talk of a 'Fed put' – that the Fed would cut rates to prevent any substantial decline in the stock market.

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Thu 6 Jun 2019 / Europe

Merz: German leader in waiting

Germany has a new leader in waiting. Friedrich Merz, long-time Christian Democratic Union rival to Chancellor Angela Merkel, is moving into pole position as her most probable replacement, with strong support from German industrialists disillusioned with the mainstream politicians at the helm of the country's lacklustre 'grand coalition' with the Social Democratic Party. In a speech to the CDU economic council in Berlin on Tuesday night, calling for an 'Agenda 2030' to restore German economic health, Merz signalled his political resurrection.

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Wed 5 Jun 2019 / Global

Emerging markets spoil IMF optimism

The IMF is pinning its hopes for a much-needed boost to the world economy on an emerging market rebound in the second half of 2019. But continuing calamities in major emerging economies undercut such optimism. Argentina seems likely to befall more problems in the lead up to its presidential election in October, and Turkey's currency crisis is equally unlikely to abate in the near term. In Brazil, the first 100 days of President Jair Bolsonaro's administration are dashing investor hopes that the country could pursue serious economic reform.

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