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December

Tue 20 Dec 2016 / Europe

Attack threatens Merkel's liberal position

Monday's attack on Berlin was highly symbolic, even more so than the recent incidents in the provinces, which were horrific episodes. The morning after was dominated by fear, fever, and Chancellor Angela Merkel’s attempt to maintain control of public opinion with sober words, but she has failed to reassure the nation. The social contract is being shattered by terrorism and the uncertain response of governments past and present.

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Wed 14 Dec 2016 / North America

Trumponomics signals sustained dollar rally

Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts risk further appreciation of the dollar and widening of the US current account deficit, while a sharp deterioration in US-China relations could lead to a substantial devaluation of the renminbi, triggering Asian currency depreciations. The prospect of expansionary US fiscal policy and modestly contractionary monetary policy is laying the foundation for a sustained dollar rally. And, if history is a guide, the odds of emerging market debt crises will increase as the Fed tightens and the dollar strengthens.

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Mon 19 Dec 2016 / North America,Middle East

Trump presidency threat to nuclear deal

There are many known unknowns about President-elect Donald Trump. Few are as important as his view on the Iran nuclear deal. During his campaign, Trump frequently criticised the Iran agreement, calling it ‘dumb’ and threatening to tear it up. However, he is also reported to have said that if Iran were a ‘stock’ it would be a ‘buy’. On another occasion, he remarked that he had made his money by enforcing deals and that he would make sure that Iran stuck by the nuclear agreement. Trump's inconsistencies spell uncertainty for the deal.

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