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Analysis

Race for survival between western leaders

This month's advisers network poll focuses on the future leadership of Germany, UK and US. Members of the network were asked: 'Who will stay in office longer — Theresa May, Donald Trump or Angela Merkel?' 
Those who responded to the poll are split 50% between Merkel and Trump, though unfortunately for May not a single respondent voted for her.

The following statements were received as part of the December poll, conducted between 5-19 December, with responses from 11 advisory network members.

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'An interesting if somewhat depressing question. My guess is Trump (I do not expect him to be impeached and convicted), followed by May, followed by Merkel.'
Ted Truman, Peterson Institute for International Economics

'Angela Merkel, though could I respond Emmanuel Macron?'
Olivier Rousseau, Fonds de réserve pour les retraites

'I believe that Donald Trump might stay in the office longest inspite of all the upsets and upheavals that his policies create around the world.'
Hemraz Jankee, formerly Bank of Mauritius

'They will all be out in 2020.'
Denis MacShane, Avisa Partners

'Taking into account elections in the US, Germany and Britain, the order of succession seems to be Trump, Merkel, May. Trump has a chance to be re-elected for another four years, Merkel may not be running for a fourth period and May looks unlikely to remain as leader of her party.'
Roel Janssen, author

February's question:
Will the Bitcoin market crash exponentially and if so, when?