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Analysis

Brexit ‘not likely’ to deter EU members

The poll for this month focuses on the future composition of the European Union after Britain finalises its proposed exit. Participants were asked: ‘With Britain scheduled to exit the European Union in one year’s time, which countries are most likely to: (a) leave next and (b) join next?’

Of those who responded to the advisers network poll, many suggested that all remaining 27 members would stay in the EU into the near future. Reasons for this included the uncertainty surrounding the global financial and political landscape, forcing European countries together. Some proposed that the EU would expand further, with the most probable next members coming from the Balkan states. As part of two polls, OMFIF’s Twitter network were given three options on who might leave and stay (see chart). Hungary came top on who would leave next, while respondents echoed the advisers in supporting Montenegro to join next.

April Poll

'Iceland will be first to join. It is hard for an EU member state to contemplate seriously an exit under current global political and economic conditions.'
Korkmaz Ilkorur, Credit Europe

'Italy would face a devastating financial crisis if it dared even to discuss ‘Italexit’ seriously.'
Kohout Pavel (@KohoutPavel)

'I don’t expect any joiners before 2028, but a reformed EU could be able to digest the expansion of ex-Yugoslav republics and Albania.'
Elliot Hentov, State Street Global Advisors

'Serbia is led by a pro-EU party which appears likely to stay in power. They are an obvious candidate to join.' 
Miroslav Singer, Generali CEE Holding

'It is highly improbable that current members want to leave, irrespective of criticism of its institutions and some EU policies.' 
Laurens Jan Brinkhorst, Leiden University

'Italy is most likely to leave next, although I think it highly improbable.'
Jeffry Frieden, Harvard University