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Analysis

Trump expected to avoid impeachment

Two-thirds of advisers believe US president will serve full term

This month's Advisers Network poll focuses on Donald Trump's future as US president after his first 100 days in office. Members of the network were asked, 'Will Donald Trump be impeached before his presidential term ends?' The options included impeachment in the first half of his term, in the second half, or no impeachment.

The Trump-Russia scandal has already cast a shadow over the new administration. Some commentators believe that Trump now faces the more viable threat of impeachment through his failures to divest his businesses and alleged violations of rules governing emoluments and gifts.

Of those polled, 69% believe he will not be impeached, 26% expect an impeachment in the second half of his presidency, while only 5% forecast an impeachment in the first half of his presidency.

A popular alternative among advisers is for a Richard Nixon-style resignation before any formal charges are brought against the president. Trump's adversarial nature when dealing with Congress, proclivity for overriding legislated regulations, and habit of challenging judges are expected to slow any possible impeachment process.

May Advisers Poll

'If ever the term "low crimes and misdemeanours" was invented for a man, it is surely for Trump. Like Richard Nixon, he will give an order and do something without realising it is an impeachable offence. It may have to wait until after the mid-term elections when more people who are not so beholden to Trump or frightened of his political machine will be elected to Congress.'

Denis MacShane, Avisa Partners

'The unhappy memory of the last impeachment, that of Bill Clinton in 1998, will temper the political establishment into seeking other ways to hold Trump to account.'

David Smith, formerly United Nations

'I do not think he will be impeached, but I do think that he will resign sometime in the second term for "medical reasons". Pressures will build up for impeachment, but he will not stay on until formal hearings start.'

Hans Genberg, The Seacen Centre