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Analysis

OMFIF advisers' confidence in French president

Next generation of leadership: 'ambition laced with high intelligence'

This month’s advisers network poll deals with the outcome of the French parliamentary election. Members of the network were asked: ‘Will Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche! (REM) party secure an absolute majority, a majority relying on ad-hoc coalitions with smaller groupings, cohabitation or other outcomes in June’s parliamentary elections?’

Of those polled, 46% forecast an REM majority with reliance on ad-hoc coalitions with smaller groupings. The remainder is split between an absolute majority outcome and one which involves cohabitation. 

Confirmation of Macron’s strength came as the OMFIF Bulletin was going to press, with the president’s better than expected showing in the first round of elections on 11 June. Following his win in the presidential election, accruing two-thirds of the votes against Marine Le Pen, some commentators had predicted a weaker performance in June for his barely one-year-old party.

The nascent REM grouping is entering more than 400 contenders for the parliamentary elections, though less than half of them have experience in elected office. Macron’s task now is to build on the solid base of the May and June elections and turn his apparent hold over the French populace into real economic results that will impress other EU countries and spur much needed growth and investment.

 Omfif Advisers Network Poll June 2017 MacronSource: OMFIF analysis

 

‘The most probable result will be a solid position for the parliamentary representation of President Macron, but just short of an absolute majority. His list of proposed parliamentarians is a calculated risk, but at the same time a positive beacon in a world of negativity and pessimism. A new Franco-German pact is on the horizon. Populism is not dead, but now very much on the defensive in key parts of Europe.’ 

Laurens Jan Brinkhorst, University of Leiden

‘Macron may eke out a small majority. He has improved his chances with confident displays on the global stage.’

Gary Smith, Barings

‘Macron will be able to build a majority with coalition partners. He is letting us glimpse what the next generation of leadership brings, ambition laced with high intelligence.’

David Smith, formerly United Nations

‘In France, Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to win an absolute majority. He will almost certainly have to rely on candidates supporting a "presidential majority".'

Boyd McCleary, 39 Essex Chambers

‘Macron looks like a phenomenon. An absolute majority is on the cards because of his charismatic performance since the presidential election.’

Stewart Fleming, St Antony’s College, University of Oxford