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Analysis

Narrow majority expects ‘acceptable’ EU deal

Tough talking: 53% of advisers expect result acceptable to both

This month's advisers network poll focused on the possible outcomes of the UK government’s formal notification to leave the European Union. Members of the advisers network were asked: 'As Theresa May triggers Article 50, what are your expectations for the result of the UK’s negotiations with the EU over the coming two years?' The four choices were: a deal acceptable to both the UK and EU27; a deal acceptable only to the UK; a deal acceptable only to the EU27; and a deal acceptable to none.

David Davis, the UK's secretary of state for exiting the EU, said, 'The government is clear in its aims: a deal that works for every nation and region of the UK and indeed for all of Europe – a new, positive partnership between the UK and our friends and allies in the EU.'

But the exit process is haphazard and the rules contained in Article 50 are brief. The government expects to secure a positive outcome but acknowledges the possibility of no formal agreement at the end of the two years. The prime minister has stated, 'No deal is better than a bad deal.'

Of those polled, 53% believe a deal acceptable to both the UK and EU27 will be achieved; 44% expect to see a deal acceptable to none; and 3% presume a deal acceptable only to the EU27 will be the outcome. None expects a deal acceptable only to the UK.

Omfif Ab Poll Chart April Brexit

'I believe that a deal acceptable to both the UK and the EU will be achieved. There is lots of chest-beating before negotiations, but something as important as this is doomed to succeed.'

John Kornblum, Former US Ambassador to Germany

'In my opinion both sides will come to the conclusion that a velvet divorce is the only way out of the mess in which we find ourselves. The multitude of crises may even help to bring home to the actors on both sides what is really at stake in a world out of joint.'

Michael Stürmer, Chief Correspondent of Die Welt

'In the time available it will not be possible to get any deal that delivers a clean break for the UK from the EU which all sides will be happy with. The only question is what sort of fudge will be acceptable to both in order to prolong the negotiations beyond the two-year timetable of Article 50.'

Stewart Fleming, Former US Editor at the Financial Times