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Analysis

UK economy expected to grow faster than EU-27

UK economy expected to grow faster than EU-27

September AB Poll Chart (Q1)

The UK’s vote to leave the European Union provided the backdrop for this month’s Advisory Board poll. We put three questions to Advisory Board members. ‘Which economy will grow faster in 2017 – the UK or the EU-27?’; ‘Which model will the UK choose for trade and investment links with the EU-27 – the single market/Norwegian model, single market/Swiss model, World Trade Organisation rules similar to the US, or a totally new model?’; and ‘What will the UK’s departure lead to – a more cohesive euro area with a stronger euro, a less cohesive euro area with a stronger euro, a more cohesive euro with a weaker euro, a less cohesive euro area with a weaker euro, euro break-up, or no change/too hard to call?’

A narrow majority of respondents to question 1 – 52% – said that the UK economy would grow faster than the EU-27 in 2017, while 70% of respondents to question 2 said that the UK would choose a totally new model for trade and investment links with the EU-27. A further 19% said that the UK would choose WTO rules. Just 7% thought the UK would opt for the single market/Norwegian model.

September AB Poll Q2 (1)

Opinion was more divided on what the UK’s EU departure would lead to in respect of the euro area and the euro: 37% believed it would lead to a less cohesive euro area with a weaker euro; 26% that it would lead to a more cohesive euro area with a stronger euro; 19% that it was too hard to call or that there would be no change; and 7% that it would lead to the euro’s break-up.