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News
Spanish outlook ‘strong’ says Linde

Spanish outlook ‘strong’ says Linde

9 Feb 2016

Spain is likely to achieve expected growth of 2.8% this year, according to Luis Maria Linde, Governor of the Spanish central bank, speaking at an OMFIF City Lecture on 9 February. Increased budget discipline and labour market and public pensions reforms have made Spain Europe’s fastest growing large country.

OMFIF visits Ghana High Commission

OMFIF visits Ghana High Commission

8 Feb 2016

OMFIF presents The Convergence of Nations to High Commissioner Victor Emmanuel Smith at the Ghana High Commission. The visit involved an in-depth discussion with the High Commissioner and his team regarding the realities that Africa now has to face.

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  • Critical voices on ECB policy, Brexit

    Critical voices on ECB policy, Brexit.

    4 Feb 2016

    Economists from 20 countries discussed the European Central Bank's policy and the impact of a British EU exit at OMFIF's Economists Meeting in Frankfurt. Attendees criticised the ECB's lax monetary stance and called on governments to enact reforms.

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  • Capital markets key to European growth

    Capital markets 'key to European growth'

    4 Feb 2016

    Capital markets union, securitisation and infrastructure bonds would boost competitiveness, increase demand for investment and address banking weakness, according to participants at an OMFIF Policy Meeting at DZ Bank, Frankfurt.

  • Click here to read the summary of discussions
  • Guðmundsson spells out Iceland lessons

    Guðmundsson spells out Iceland lessons

    28 Jan 2016

    Central Bank of Iceland Governor Már Guðmundsson said flexible monetary policy had helped Iceland recover from the financial crisis. In an OMFIF City Lecture, he said unusual circumstances had facilitated a quicker-than-average recovery.

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    Commentary

    • After immigration, it’s London v the euro area

      by Jacques Lafitte and Denis MacShane | Tue 9 Feb 2016

      Much of the discussion over the deal David Cameron hopes will avoid Brexit has focused on supplements for low-pay European workers with children, but this has obscured a much bigger issue - London's bid for oversight of the euro area's development. Most British politicians and pundits view the euro as a failure, but that is not the case across the Channel. The currency is not going to go away and the euro area will not take much notice of what the UK says - Brexit or no Brexit.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Europe’s three psycho-battles

      by David Marsh | Mon 8 Feb 2016

      Three psychological battles – over migration into Europe, the terms of Britain’s EU referendum and the ECB’s next monetary easing to boost the economy and weaken the euro – will come to a head in the next few weeks, setting challenges for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British Prime Minister David Cameron and ECB president Mario Draghi. Whoever emerges victorious may achieve ‘winner takes all’ status – while losers could be defeated across the board.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Beijing’s currency contradictions

      by John Adams, recently in Beijing | Tue 2 Feb 2016

      Aspects of the renminbi’s internationalisation are creating complications. The current phase of economic weakening requires an export stimulus by depreciation, but national policy considerations demand monetary soundness. China has been proceeding with the renmimbi's internationalisation as a currency for trade, and this is set to go further. Weighing up the pros and cons of currency internationalisation is a central task of Beijing’s financial management.

      MARKET: China

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    • Time for US-China swap agreement

      by David Marsh | Mon 1 Feb 2016

      In the incomplete architecture of the developing multicurrency reserve system, one key element is missing: a swap line between the US and China. The world’s two largest economies should fill this lacuna by negotiating a swap agreement in each other’s currencies, with the aim of supplying dollar and renminbi liquidity on global financial markets. An accord would emphasise steadying the renminbi against its main trading partners and calm financial markets.

      MARKET: World

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    OMFIF Chart

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    by David Marsh and Ben Robinson

    The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    by William Baunton

    Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    History repeating itself

    by William Baunton

    Bear market grips Chinese stocks with echoes of 2007

    History repeating itself
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    Advisory Board View

    OMFIF Advisory Board expects $45-$50 oil price

    The OMFIF Advisory Board’s predictions for 2016 include that oil prices will rise to $45-$50 by the end of the year. Demand is growing modestly, but is outstripped by supply. Only a revolution in Saudi Arabia could push prices through the ceiling.

    OMFIF Advisory Board Predictions 2016
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