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Tighter jobs market ‘pushing rates hike’

Tighter jobs market ‘pushing rates hike’

23 May 2016

A tightening labour market, abating international economic tensions and gradually increasing inflation make a rise in US interest rates more likely, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, told an OMFIF audience in Beijing.

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  • Single market ‘not a fortress’

    Single market 'not a fortress'

    17 May 2016

    It is a myth that the EU is incredibly difficult to sell into – the single market is not a fortress with very high walls, says Lord (Norman) Lamont, a former UK chancellor of the exchequer and senior adviser to OMFIF, in an interview with CNBC.

  • Click here to see the interview
  • Brexit disruption for UK asset managers

    Brexit disruption for UK asset managers

    11 May 2016

    A full UK exit from the European Union resulting in the UK having third-country status would profoundly disrupt the export of asset management services and products, say Guy Sears and Angus Canvin in an OMFIF Commentary.

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  • Bumpy ride for multicurrency system

    Bumpy ride for multicurrency system

    9 May 2016

    The world’s multicurrency reserve system now shaping up is likely to be significantly more volatile than the de facto bipolar arrangement linking the dollar and D-mark that existed until 1999, and the dollar-euro system that has existed since then, says David Marsh, OMFIF’s managing director.

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  • May Bulletin - Fed and the election

    May Bulletin - Fed and the election

    6 May 2016

    The May edition of the Bulletin, now available online, analyses the key issues confronting the US electorate ahead of November's presidential poll, including wage stagnation, Chinese investment and Federal Reserve concerns over global economic and financial hazards.

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    Commentary

    • Trade and the Brexit fallacy

      by Sanford Henry in London | Wed 25 May 2016

      Brexiteers speak with the conviction of life-long obsession. If the UK leaves the EU, they are making cast-iron guarantees to the British people and the country's trading partners. They laud the prospect of an avalanche of worldwide free trade deals. With these fast-growing economies, so the argument goes, the UK will be free to forge its own commercial accords and loosen its dependence on dreary, sclerotic Europe – a Europe that absorbs close to half of all British exports. Peddlers of this utopian dream need a reality check.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Swish Six go to Europe

      by David Marsh in London | Tue 24 May 2016

      Six besuited men stride across the lawn, sober, slightly sheepish. They are greeted with expansive bonhomie by another male, open-neck-shirted, rosy-cheeked. David Cameron, the prime minister, begins: 'Welcome, gentlemen, the people have spoken – a 60-40 majority for staying in the EU. Our six living former chancellors of the exchequer all gathered here, quite an occasion. I want you to bury your differences. Help me launch genuine European reform…'

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Avarice of strangers

      by Brian Reading in London | Mon 23 May 2016

      The balance of payments – which looms large in the debate over Britain’s membership of the European Union – is double-entry book keeping. A current account deficit always equals financial (and capital) account inflows. A floating exchange rate clears the currency market. Analysing balance of payments and foreign direct investment data has a role in the debate about Britain and Europe. But no one – including the governor of the Bank of England – should overstretch the arguments.

      MARKET: Europe

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    • Brexit scare helps the debtors

      by Vicky Pryce in London | Sun 22 May 2016

      In a nervous environment where Europe wants Britain to vote to stay in on 23 June, Greece holds important cards in its poker game with creditors over managing and rescheduling its debts. The spectre of Brexit is worrying the EU and the Commission enough to ensure that Brussels is taking a more conciliatory approach on the fiscal front across several debtor member states, not just Greece.

      MARKET: Europe

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    OMFIF Chart

    ECB voting rotation

    by Ben Robinson

    At the 10 March ECB monetary policy meeting Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann did not have a vote, due to rotating voting rights introduced in 2015. The rotation along national lines raises the risk of members pursuing national interests in policy decisions. This may make consensus more difficult to achieve.

    ECB voting rotation

    Cost cuts and market share

    by Ben Robinson

    Despite substantial cost-cutting efforts, southern European countries have failed to achieve significant increases in export market share since the financial crisis, according to data collated by the Österreichische Nationalbank.

    Austria meeting

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    by David Marsh and Ben Robinson

    The Great Monetary Polarisation between the US and Europe is underway. The message from 70 years of monetary history is that, in the next few months, there is a roughly 50% chance of large-scale foreign exchange upheaval.

    Great Monetary Polarisation set to widen

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples

    by William Baunton

    Bear market now gripping Hong Kong stock market too

    Chinese stock market fall sends worldwide ripples
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    Advisory Board View

    Advisory Board believes Clinton will win

    We asked Advisory Board members who they thought would be the next US president; which of the potential candidates would be most likely to promote sustainable US economic growth in the next two-to-three years; and which candidate would be most likely to bring about a rapprochement with Russia. Hillary Clinton was the runaway winner in all three categories.

    Advisory Board believes Clinton will win
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